GNSS Markets and Applications - Understanding GPS: Principles and Applications - page 639

unlikely, the return of SA or possible imposition of fees for use of GPS would be a
deterrent to all civil market growth. Neither of these contingencies has been fac-
tored into any projections given herein, as the probabilities of occurrence are
extremely low. Expected deployments of new signals such as L5 for civilian users
could be delayed, as many government programs have been, and in turn delay mar-
ket growth in several civilian sectors. By contrast, policies such as the E-911 man-
date from the U.S. FCC that require cell phone operators to pinpoint their users who
call 911 has spurred growth of GPS chips for cell phones as one way to satisfy the
mandate. There were over 450 million cell phones in use in 2002, with an expecta-
tion of almost 700 million by 2007. In the same period, PDA quantities are expected
to rise from 48 million to 140 million [9].
The GPS user-oriented market as defined earlier has been growing at 18-20%
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [2]. This is expected to continue for the next
several years until GALILEO signals are available. Then the CAGR for the com-
bined GPS and GALILEO GNSS market could increase to about 30%. Some aspects
will remain the same, notably that civil users will continue to outnumber military
users by more than 1,000 to 1, with that ratio increasing. The current ratio is over
100 to 1. About 80 of the world's militaries use GPS in one way or another, but
approximately 50 of those countries must rely on ruggedized civil receivers. The
others have executed memoranda of understanding with the U.S. DOD and there-
fore have access to the GPS military signals.
Because of the vast difference in number of users, the civil market value will
always be greater than the military market value. However, as GALILEO deploys, it
will have to be left for a future prognosticator to determine the new ratio. This is
because the extent that the military will use GALILEO is yet to be determined.
12.1.2 Unique Aspects of GNSS Market
Markets can be thought of in a hierarchical way with the total market subsuming an
addressable market subsuming an achievable market. A company interested in
entering the market or concerned with forecasting possible sales will start with the
total market, which includes all of the goods and services described earlier. It
includes both military and civilian and as noted, is global in nature. From that is
derived an addressable market and within that an achievable , or an expected, mar-
ket. An example might be the market addressed by a civil GPS chip maker. This
addressable market would eliminate the military market but consider all civil
receiver manufacturers and chipset adapters as potential customers. Another
approach is to come at it from the number of possible users of the technology. This
is done by just counting the ships, aircraft, hikers, autos, trucks, laptops, cell
phones, and so forth. Afterwards, an educated guess is used to try and quantify
what portion of these users of these products will need a GPS or GNSS chipset. The
GNSS chipset can be thought of now as GPS + WAAS or GPS + EGNOS. In a few
years, that definition would be expanded to include GALILEO and any other civil
satellite navigation system or augmentation. With flexible software-based digital
signal processing, it is well within the state of the art to develop products that can
utilize any signals in view.