INSTRUMENTAL CORRECTIONS FOR A DEFINITION OF CYBERWAR - Cyberwar-Netwar: Security in the Information Age - page 13

x System obtains a quality of technological saturation, i.e., it keeps up the achieved
parameters for a long time, but cannot answer to new challenges
x System gradually becomes essentially another system
What factors influence periods of formation, development and saturation, and on the
location of which points of inflections? We suppose the following five factors:
x Factor of the expected theoretical S-curve, i.e., off-the-shelf technologies, which
are in agreement with the basic tendency of the cyberwar S-curve
x Factor of the distinctions with the expected theoretical S-curve, i.e., the
developing technologies that have a large influence on the development of the
basic tendency of the cyberwar S-curve
x Factor of new forms of the theoretical S-curve, i.e. the R&D, that have large
influence on development of the basic tendency of the cyberwar S-curve
x Intellectual factor, i.e., the presence of the adversary's skilled specialists and
experts capable of using these technologies and R&D
x Economic factors that suppose the widening of investment, by means of pushing
developed obsolete technologies to the mass market
It is possible to assume that some cyberwar-oriented systems should steadily develop
from beginning to end according to the S-curve; however, practically, transition to
application of such a system always has some delay and starts from a lower technological
level (this phenomenon is explained by inertness of thinking). Therefore, there is no
guarantee that the intellectually gifted adversary, who has bought an 'obsolete' system,
will not improve this system independently (see Fig. 4).
Fig. 4. Cyberattacks and S-curve of Cyberwar