Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
from the website
www.eccad.sedoo.fr
,
are RETRO, GFEDv3 (van der Werf et al.
2010
), GICC (Mieville et al.
2010
), GFEDv2 (van der Werf et al.
2006
), GUESS-
ES (Knorr et al.
2011
) (see Tables
6.2
and
6.3
for basic characteristics). We also
compared spatial distribution from the five EF inventories with the burned area
pattern (km
2
) as recorded at provincial level by JRC.
The largest monthly burned area was observed in Foggia (Apulia region,
43 km
2
), Catanzaro (Calabria region, 39 km
2
), Cosenza (Calabria region, 28 km
2
),
Palermo (Sicily, 22 km
2
), and Nuoro (Sardinia region, 17 km
2
) (Fig.
6.3
).
GFEDv3, GICC, GFEDv2, and GUESS-ES agreed, on the whole, on the spatial
distribution of the biomass burning emission (as shown by Fig.
6.3
) and on the
amount of CO emitted, despite the different grid size.
For example, as regards the Foggia burned area, GUESS-ES estimated the highest
value of biomass burning, from 0.005 to 0.01 Tg CO, followed by GFEDv3 (from
0.002 to 0.005 Tg CO). GICC and GFEDv2 assessed the lowest values, from 0.001
to 0.002 Tg CO. Furthermore, as per the Catanzaro burned area, GFEDv3, GICC,
and GFEDv2, unlike RETRO database, agreed on spatial location and the total
amount of CO emitted (0.002, 0.012, and 0.012 Tg CO respectively). Finally, only
RETRO inventory recorded biomass burning due to large fires in Sardinia Island.
Differences among emission inventories are likely because of different products
to estimate burned area, as highlighted by Jain (
2007
) at both regional and global
scale. For example, in Italy RETRO inventory uses long-term annual fire statistics
at province level, and the geographic distribution derive from qualitative literature
description and random distribution of individual large fires (Shultz et al.
2008
).
Nevertheless, the RETRO Authors admitted that year 2000 is below-average.
GFEDv3 burned areas (from 1997 to October 2000) are based on relations between
active fires (ATSR, VIRS, and MODIS) and mapped burned area. van der Werf et al.
(
2010
) pointed out about 25 % of uncertainties during the years before 2001, high-
lighting also that the patchiness (typical of highly anthropogenically exploited areas
such as the Mediterranean) may lead to an error in burned area estimates.
6.5.3 21st Century Scenarios
Finally, 21st century FEs scenarios for four species (CO, CH
4
, black carbon (BC),
and NO
x
) in Italy across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are
illustrated in this section.
The RCPs (collaborative products between climate modelers, terrestrial eco-
system modelers and emission inventory experts) are a set of four new possible
pathways of emissions and land use developments, based on consistent scenarios
representative of existing literature (van Vuuren et al.
2011
).
The RCPs, named according to radiative forcing target level for year 2100,
included one mitigation scenario leading to a very low forcing level (RCP3PD),
two medium stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP6) and one very high baseline
emission scenarios (RCP8.5). Granier et al. (
2011
) stated that the future emissions
