Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
emissions can be reduced, while a range of other policies at an urban level reviewed
in the next chapter are having the same effect. Although some countries are making
emissions reduction a national policy and have produced impressive results, many
are only taking what amounts to a slow evolutionary approach to change. Given the
current trends, the total pace of change in renewable energy creation and carbon re-
ductions is not fast enough to reduce carbon emissions to a level that will restrict the
warming of the world to an average of 2 ﾰC, the level at which the influential IPCC
panel believes will trigger a series of major changes. Certainly these predictions are
still only best estimates from the majority of climate scientists. But despite recent
increases in the amount of new gas and oil from shale beds it does seem that to
adopt the 'business as usual approach', assuming new sources and technologies will
always be found, is foolhardy in the long term sense because fossil fuels, especially
oil, are finite, and their use has so many negative effects despite their relative price
advantage over most other energy sources. Yet the situation is made more complex
by the frequent price volatility in the oil and gas markets in particular. The recent
decrease in gas prices makes it possible to use more gas for energy with less pollut-
ing effects. But the almost 40% drop in oil prices from June to December 2014 may
make some assume that it will be permanent, thereby decreasing the attraction of re-
newable energy sources. But this decline is the result of a sluggish world economy,
a glut of oil from new sources such as shale beds, and the decision of the OPEC
oil cartel to keep producing, perhaps in the hope of squeezing out their high cost
oil-producing competitors, which includes shale oil, whose potential in the world is
considerable, although at high costs. Given projected world population growth and
energy demands the low oil prices are unlikely to continue, at least in the medium
and long term. But this oil price decline may convince some of the inadequacy of
the prediction of a Peak Oil-Limited Supplies-High Price future. However, given
the finite nature of supply, all these current changes do is to push this scenario into
the future. Moreover, a continued dependence on coal and oil in particular will con-
tinue to pollute the planet with real negative consequences for climate warming. As
a major report for the British government argued some years ago, strong national
and international action to reduce emissions should be seen as an
insurance
against
greater losses due to the impact of more extreme weather events. The costs for stabi-
lizing emissions—mainly renewable energy subsidies and charging more for carbon
intensive goods—to prevent a carbon dioxide build-up of over 500-550ppm (higher
than the IPCC suggestions) were estimated to be between 1-2% of GDP annually,
compared to at least 5% and up to 20% of GDP annually if no action is taken (Stern
2007). Obviously these were estimates, figures that have provoked controversy
(Barker 2008). But even modifications of these numbers have led most to accept
that to take no action, or action on too small, is an unjustifiable risk. Many hope that
an international conference on climate change in Paris in 2015 win finally produce
firm action to resolve this real problem of sustainability, although if past efforts are
a guide the signs for binding commitments are not encouraging. Fortunately there
are other approaches to reducing emissions and increasing our sustainability which
involve actions at an urban scale, instead of only international ones, issues dealt
with in Chaps. 6 and 7.
