Tourism, Climate Change and Development - Tourism and Development: Concepts and Issues - page 346

growth by 2020. Even under a 'serious climate policy' scenario that the
authors felt was highly unlikely to emerge before 2020, the reduction in
arrivals growth was only 15% less than the BAU scenario, although even this
figure may not be acceptable to some members of the tourism industry.

Consequences of emissions trading for arrivals in
less-developed island states
In their analysis of emerging climate policy in major tourism outbound
markets, Gössling et al. (2008) assessed the direct implications of emission
trading for the aviation sector and examined the potential consequences for
travel costs and tourism demand in 10 tourism-dependent less-developed
island states with diverse geographic and tourism market characteristics. The
study assumed that additional costs per ton of CO 2 of € 27.40 in 2012 and

€ 46.90 would apply by 2020. This is certainly too high, as the study consid-

ered the inclusion of non-CO 2 emissions in the EU ETS for aviation, as was
originally suggested by the EC. Furthermore, the study assumed that emis-
sions from aviation in the EU would grow by 40% by 2011 and 100% by
2020, while there would be a cap of 90% of 2005 emission levels in 2012 and
79% of 2005 emission levels in 2020, with 25% of allowances being auctioned.
Current EU policy foresees a cap of 5% by 2020, with 15% of allowances
being auctioned. These assumptions thus need to be seen as increasing prices
far more substantially than climate policy actually will. To test the conse-
quences of a tough climate policy, the study by Gössling et al. (2008) also
provided a second scenario called 'Worldwide Serious Climate Policy', where
costs of 230 per t of CO 2 are introduced by 2020 (see Gössling et al. , 2008).

The results show that climate policy will affect markets in tourism-
dependent, developing countries, but in view of the post-2001 trends of con-
siderable increase in demand for holidays in most of these locations, climate
policy was not projected to lead to a notable decline in tourist arrivals up to
2020. Rather, the result would be a slight delay in growth in arrival numbers
in the EU ETS scenario (arrivals would be 0.2% to 5.8% lower relative to a
BAU scenario), unless a very strong, international climate policy for aviation
is implemented. In the Worldwide Serious Climate Policy scenario, arrivals
would grow by 4% to 72% less relative to the BAU scenario.
Based on Gössling et al. (2008), Table 11.5 illustrates differences in the
carbon intensity of a number of countries. Weighted average emissions per
tourist vary between a low of 635 kg CO 2 in Jamaica and 1873 kg CO 2 in
Seychelles. Depending on the number of international tourist arrivals, tourist
emissions add up to considerable amounts, ranging from 30,500t CO 2 in
Comoros to 3.1Mt CO 2 in Cuba. Information on the importance of the main
market indicates that between 21% (Seychelles) and 72% (Jamaica) of all
international tourist arrivals originate from a single country. This indicates
a considerable dependence on single markets. Moreover, emissions by each

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