Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Stage 2:
Early expanding
Stage 3:
Late expanding
Stage 4:
Low stationary
I am going to make a big deal of them for two reasons. First, if you understand the model, then the
factors that gave rise to the historical population growth curve illustrated in Figure 11-3 become crys-
tal clear. Second, different countries of the world are in different stages of the demographic transition.
Therefore,ifyouunderstandthemodel,thenyoucanunderstandwhyaparticularcountryisexperien-
cing its particular rate of natural increase and its attendant social characteristics. Parenthetically, sev-
eral developed and developing countries have already completed the transition. Demographers have
used the experiences of those countries to predict the course of global population growth into the next
century (see Figure 11-3).
Figure 11-5:
The
demo-graphic
transition model
shows the rela-
tionship between
birth rates and
death rates over
time.
Stage 1: High stationary
In this stage, birth rates and death rates are
high
and about equal (see Figure 11-5). Thus, pop-
ulation growth is
stationary
(exhibiting little or no change) because the numbers of births and
deaths are “canceling out” each other. These conditions were characteristic of global popula-
tion prior to 1650 (Figure 11-3). The high death rates of those times were products of poor
sanitation, tainted water supply systems, faulty food storage, lack of education, and absence of
medicines and vaccines. The results included the following:
Infant mortality
(the incidence of death before a child's first birthday) was astonishingly
high, meaning that it claimed about 25 percent or more of newborns even in some “advanced”
societies.
