Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
However, many countries have doubling times far longer than 70 years, and some even have negative
rates ofnatural increase. Germany,forexample, hasanatural increase of-0.1percent. Russia'sfigure
is-0.7percent.Thatmeansthedeathrateisactuallyexceedingthebirthrateinthosecountries,whose
populations may begin to decline should these conditions hold for the foreseeable future.
Mostexamplesof“negativegrowth”areformerCommunistcountriesthatareexperiencingeconomic
difficulties as they struggle to make the transition to market economies. One way to economize in
tough times is not to have children, which is why those countries' birth rates have dropped below
their death rates — negative growth.
Increasing for a reason: The demographic transition
model
The geography of natural increase doesn't “just happen.” Instead, particular rates of natural increase
are occurring in particular countries for particular reasons. To help explain these circumstances,
demographers have developed a widely applicable set of generalizations (based on the experiences
of many countries) called the
demographic transition model,
which is shown in Figure 11-5. Because
the topic is people,
demographic
makes complete sense. Also, the model begins and ends with nom-
inal population change. But in between a period of
transition,
characterized by substantial growth,
occurs.
The demographic transition model considers the relationship between birth rates and death rates over
time, and consists of four stages:
Stage 1:
High stationary
