Expectations for Future Microand Nanotechnologies - Implications of Emerging Micro-and Nanotechnologies - page 11

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Expectations for Future Micro-
and Nanotechnologies
OVERVIEW OF CURRENT STUDIES
Visions for the future of nanotechnology and for its impact on technology in
general are many. In this chapter, the committee discusses three: the International
Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS), the MEMS Industry Group
2001 Annual Report, and the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI).
International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors
In 1992, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) published a roadmap
that charted the future of the industry by providing consensus predictions of
future requirements and suggested solutions to anticipated problems with a 15-
year time horizon. The industry roadmapping has evolved into a continuous
process, with major reissues every 2 years. The most recent full update, the 2001
ITRS 1 includes input from semiconductor manufacturers worldwide and covers a
16-year period, divided into the near term (2001-2007) and the long term (2008-
2016). Past SIA roadmaps have proven to be reliable predictors of future inte-
grated circuit performance.
The growth in integrated circuit (IC) performance over the past 30 years has
been both phenomenal and consistent. One performance measure, the number of
transistors per chip, or per integrated circuit (see Figure 2-1), demonstrates the
exponential growth predicted by Moore's law. This exponential growth has been
the result of continually shrinking the dimensions of integrated circuit elements
from tens of micrometers to tens of nanometers. Figure 2-2 shows how this
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