The scientists and the apocalypse - Climate Change: The Facts - page 177

long-plannedjointmeetingonthe'dangerouslevels'questionthatEstradawonderedaloud
whether the scientists were 'suffering from a Dr Frankenstein syndrome.' Their work had
created the Convention, yet now that it is 'alive and walking, and deciding things, the
scientists have reacted against its demands.' 30
Were they afraid that their creation is now dangerously out of control? Estrada teased
the IPCC with this analogy while visiting the UK, and so New Scientist asked the British
chairman of Working Group I, John Houghton, to respond. Houghton defended their
tardiness just as Bolin had: the rigorous peer-review process needed time to run its course.
But anyway, he could see no rush, for the new report would contain little that was new.
'The past four years' work has underlined and confirmed most of what we said in 1990.' 31
That was in June 1994. Early in 1995 COP1 produced the 'Berlin Mandate' and
SBSTA. Meanwhile, the IPCC, now on tenuous authority, continued with its assessment. 32
In the summer, Working Group I lead authors met for the last time in Asheville, North
Carolina, to finalise the chapters and draft the summary. When these were circulated ahead
oftheapprovalplenaryscheduledforNovemberinMadrid,itwasclearthatHoughtonwas
right—not much had changed. Not much except something of a retreat on the question of
detection. New research by the lead authors of the detection chapter raised new concerns
about determining natural variability from the patchy and uncertain climate record. With
inadequate knowledge of natural variability, there was no 'yardstick' against which to
measure the human influence. 33 The detection chapter, Chapter 8, closed off with a deeply
sceptical conclusion. The retreat to scepticism is complete in the response to the question
of when detection might be achieved: 'We don't know.' 34
The drafted Policymakers Summary was not so sceptical and cheerleading journalists
let everyone know by leaking a weak detection claim. 35 With legally binding emissions
protocols now a real prospect, there were business interests keen to see it moderated.
Everyone was ready for a real showdown in Madrid and this time the business lobby was
well prepared.
Scientists against science
EspeciallyfollowingtheRioSummit,non-governmentorganisationsofallshadeshadbeen
encouraged to participate in the review process. Opposite Greenpeace, a business coalition
that they called 'The Carbon Club' had already made a strong case for weakening the
summary with a raft of suggested changes built on the very wording of the underlying
chapters. 36 At Madrid, they continued the campaign in collaboration with the Saudis. But
not long after the meeting opened they were thrown completely off guard.