Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
the Earth Summit, and with its policy group languishing in stunned suspension, the IPCC
continued to assert its independence by preparing supplements to the assessments of the
other two working groups. Added to the top of the Working Group I supplement was an
updated summary of the science. Its six cautious 'major conclusions' only showed how
little had changed, with the last repeating the prediction that detection is not likely 'for a
was writing its equivocations into obsolescence.
The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) opened with a statement that
emissions 'will result in' global warming. There seemed to be no need for Working Group
I to continue its search for empirical confirmation. The FCCC then redefined 'climate
change'asonlythatresultingfromhumanactivity.InonestrokethepriorworkoftheIPCC
was reframed to its needs. Not surprisingly, whenever the INC did solicit further advice, it
wasnevertoconfirmthescience,butonlyevertoinformthedevelopmentofclimatetreaty
protocols.
One such question, perhaps the most basic of all, caused no end of friction between
these two UN organisations. The objective of the FCCC was set to 'stabilise greenhouse
gasconcentrationsintheatmosphereatalevelthatwouldpreventdangerousanthropogenic
interference with the climate system', and so the IPCC was asked to provide the level
at which such concentrations would become dangerous. But as discussions began, with
specialworkshopsconvened,Bolinbecameincreasinglypreoccupiedwiththeuncertainties
engulfing every aspect of this question.
The INC kept pressing for an answer while Bolin shifted towards the view that this
was not a question for the IPCC because it was in the realm of policy. While others in the
IPCC leadership disagreed, he slipped into further doubt, wondering whether anyone in
any sphere could provide a meaningful answer. With so many uncertainties in the relations
between chaotic systems, both natural and social, it would be impossible to make a call on
where danger lay.
29
Nevertheless, the IPCC pressed ahead with plans for a second full and independent
assessment, scheduled for release in 1995. This might have come in before the interim
arrangementended,withCOP1requiredwithinayearafterreachingaquotaofConvention
ratifications. When this was attained earlier than many expected, in March 1994, the
timetable for the second assessment review process had already pushed out to the end of
1995, way beyond COP1, scheduled for that March.
Early friction with the INC did not amount to much until 1993 when Raúl
Estrada-Ouyela, an Argentinian diplomat, was elected to the chair. In preparing for COP1,
at COP1, and beyond, Estrada made it known that Bolin and his IPCC were an annoyance
that the treaty process would be better without. After the COP1 date was fixed, Estrada
repeatedly asked Bolin to fast-track the new assessment. It was when Bolin deferred a
