Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
E
P
E
R
T
R
*
R
Q
1
Q
S
S
F
M
*
M
C
D
*
G
G
Q
B
R
surface water store
R*
surface water storage threshold
Q
S
surface water routing store (with parameter K
s
)
F
infiltration to soil moisture store (with parameters fo, fc, k)
M
soil moisture store
M*
soil moisture storage threshold
recharge to groundwater store
D
C
maximum rate of capillary rise
groundwater store (with parameter Kg)
G
G*
groundwater storage threshold
Figure 2.8
Schematic diagram of the Dawdy and O'Donnell (1995) conceptual or explicit soil moisture
accounting (ESMA) rainfall-runoff model.
Toolbox of Wagener
et al.
(2004), the FUSE system of Clark
et al.
(2008) and the FLEX system of
Fenicia
et al.
(2008a, 2008b).
ESMA models are also being used to predict the impact of climate change in different countries (see
also Chapter 8). In this context, their use is more problematic because the accuracy of the predictions
rely heavily on the availablity of data for calibration. Thus, if the parameter values of a model are
successfully calibrated under current conditions, and then the model is used with a different range of
climatic inputs, representing perhaps one possible scenario for conditions some time in the 21st century,
there is no guarantee that the current accuracy will be maintained, especially if the changed conditions
are more extreme. No data are available, however, for calibration under the changed conditions. Thus, the
impact predictions should be expected to be more uncertain than current-day simulations and any impact
predictions should be associated with an estimation of uncertainty. This is not yet commonly done.
