A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 251

Table B18. Node U: Reproduction

Node N:
Shelf Distance

Rate of Reproduction

Node V1:

Node M: Ecoregion Cub Production per Event Change (km) Increased Same as Now Decreased

Polar basin divergent fewer than now -200 to 0 0.0 0.3 0.7

Polar basin divergent fewer than now 0 to 200 0.0 0.2 0.8

Polar basin divergent fewer than now 200 to 800 0.0 0.0 1.0

Polar basin divergent fewer than now >= 800 0.0 0.0 1.0

Polar basin divergent same as now -200 to 0 0.7 0.3 0.0

Polar basin divergent same as now 0 to 200 0.0 1.0 0.0

Polar basin divergent same as now 200 to 800 0.0 0.3 0.7

Polar basin divergent same as now >= 800 0.0 0.0 1.0

Polar basin divergent more than now -200 to 0 1.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin divergent more than now 0 to 200 0.5 0.5 0.0

Polar basin divergent more than now 200 to 800 0.0 0.5 0.5

>= 800

Polar basin divergent more than now 0.0 0.0 1.0

-200 to 0

Polar basin convergent fewer than now 0.0 0.5 0.5

Polar basin convergent fewer than now 0 to 200 0.0 0.4 0.6

Polar basin convergent fewer than now 200 to 800 0.0 0.3 0.7

>= 800

Polar basin convergent fewer than now 0.0 0.2 0.8

-200 to 0

Polar basin convergent same as now 1.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin convergent same as now 0 to 200 0.5 0.5 0.0

Polar basin convergent same as now 200 to 800 0.2 0.6 0.2

>= 800

Polar basin convergent same as now 0.0 0.5 0.5

-200 to 0

Polar basin convergent more than now 1.0 0.0 0.0

Polar basin convergent more than now 0 to 200 0.8 0.2 0.0

Polar basin convergent more than now 200 to 800 0.4 0.4 0.2

>= 800

Polar basin convergent more than now 0.2 0.4 0.4

-200 to 0

Archipelago fewer than now 0.0 0.2 0.8

Archipelago fewer than now 0 to 200 0.0 0.2 0.8

Archipelago fewer than now 200 to 800 0.0 0.2 0.8

Archipelago fewer than now >= 800 0.0 0.2 0.8

Archipelago same as now -200 to 0 0.2 0.6 0.2

Archipelago same as now 0 to 200 0.2 0.6 0.2

Archipelago same as now 200 to 800 0.2 0.6 0.2

Archipelago same as now >= 800 0.2 0.6 0.2

Archipelago more than now -200 to 0 0.8 0.2 0.0

Archipelago more than now 0 to 200 0.8 0.2 0.0

Archipelago more than now 200 to 800 0.8 0.2 0.0

Archipelago more than now >= 800 0.8 0.2 0.0

Seasonal ice fewer than now -200 to 0 0.0 0.2 0.8

Seasonal ice fewer than now 0 to 200 0.0 0.2 0.8

Seasonal ice fewer than now 200 to 800 0.0 0.2 0.8

Seasonal ice fewer than now >= 800 0.0 0.2 0.8

Seasonal ice same as now -200 to 0 0.2 0.6 0.2

Seasonal ice same as now 0 to 200 0.2 0.6 0.2

Seasonal ice same as now 200 to 800 0.2 0.6 0.2

Seasonal ice same as now >= 800 0.2 0.6 0.2

Seasonal ice more than now -200 to 0 0.8 0.2 0.0

Seasonal ice more than now 0 to 200 0.8 0.2 0.0

Seasonal ice more than now 200 to 800 0.8 0.2 0.0

Seasonal ice more than now >= 800 0.8 0.2 0.0