A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 250

Table B14. Node k: Adult Body Condition Table B17. Node l2:Vital Rates

Node l1:
Adult

Quality of Adult Body Condition
Increase

Node F2: Factor
A—habitat Threats

Vital Rates

Node l:

Same as Now Decrease

Female
Survival

Juvenile
Survival

Node U:
Reproduction Improve

Same as
Now

Improvement 1.0 0.0 0.0

Decline

No effect 0.0 1.0 0.0

Increase increase increased 1.0 0.0 0.0

Minor restriction 0.0 0.5 0.5

Increase increase same as now 1.0 0.0 0.0

Major restriction 0.0 0.0 1.0

Increase increase decreased 0.6 0.4 0.0

Increase no change increased 0.9 0.1 0.0

Increase no change same as now 0.8 0.2 0.0

Increase no change decreased 0.7 0.2 0.1

Increase decrease increased 0.3 0.5 0.2

Increase decrease same as now 0.2 0.5 0.3

Increase decrease decreased 0.0 0.4 0.6

Table B15. Node l: Juvenile Survival
Node k:
Adult Body

No change increase increased 0.7 0.3 0.0

Node l1:
Adult Female

No change increase same as now 0.6 0.4 0.0

Juvenile Survival

No change increase decreased 0.2 0.5 0.3

Condition Survival Increase No Change Decrease

No change no change increased 0.2 0.8 0.0

No change no change same as now 0.0 1.0 0.0

Increase increase 1.0 0.0 0.0

No change no change decreased 0.0 0.8 0.2

Increase no change 0.7 0.3 0.0

No change decrease increased 0.0 0.6 0.4

Increase decrease 0.0 0.4 0.6

No change decrease same as now 0.0 0.5 0.5

Same as now increase 0.8 0.2 0.0

No change decrease decreased 0.0 0.3 0.7

Same as now no change 0.0 1.0 0.0

Decrease increase increased 0.2 0.4 0.4

Same as now decrease 0.0 0.2 0.8

Decrease increase same as now 0.0 0.6 0.4

Decrease increase 0.0 0.6 0.4

Decrease increase decreased 0.0 0.5 0.5

Decrease no change 0.0 0.3 0.7

Decrease no change increased 0.1 0.5 0.4

Decrease decrease 0.0 0.0 1.0

Decrease no change same as now 0.0 0.4 0.6

Decrease no change decreased 0.0 0.3 0.7

Decrease decrease increased 0.0 0.2 0.8

Decrease decrease same as now 0.0 0.0 1.0

Decrease decrease decreased 0.0 0.0 1.0

Table B16. Node l1: Adult Female Survival
Node k:
Adult Body

Node F2:
Factor A—

Adult Female Survival

Condition habitat Threats Increase No Change Decrease

Increase improvement 1.0 0.0 0.0

Increase no effect 0.8 0.2 0.0

Increase minor restriction 0.1 0.6 0.3

Increase major restriction 0.0 0.5 0.5

Same as now improvement 0.5 0.5 0.0

Same as now no effect 0.0 1.0 0.0

Same as now minor restriction 0.0 0.6 0.4

Same as now major restriction 0.0 0.3 0.7

Decrease improvement 0.0 0.4 0.6

Decrease no effect 0.0 0.2 0.8

Decrease minor restriction 0.0 0.1 0.9

Decrease major restriction 0.0 0.0 1.0