Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
predictions, especially if these are made without
an adequate scientific basis. Thus, much attention
was given to the Iben Browning earthquake
prediction in southern Illinois in 1992 (Spence
et
al
. 1993). The apparent plausibility of this charlatan
prediction, and the willingness of the mass media
and a few scientists to take it seriously,
undermined the public status of genuine scientific
efforts to forecast seismic activity. Official
seismological institutions tried to rebut the
prediction by ignoring it, which turned out to be
a mistake, as the public thought they had
something to hide (Stevens 1993). In the same
vein, social scientific perspectives on journalistic
coverage of earthquakes suggest a lack of faith in
the news media's ability to portray events
accurately, although some researchers have argued
that the media can successfully be induced to play
a valuable role as suppliers of emergency
management information to the public (Scanlon
et al
. 1985). Although the Western news media's
coverage of earthquake disasters in third world
countries is not explicitly biased against such
places, it seems to be strongly related to the
number of reporters on the ground and their
contacts in the local area, and to readers'
familiarity with the area in question (Gaddy and
Tanjong 1986).
Some fine studies of post-earthquake
reconstruction have been conducted in the
tradition of urban geography. Of particular note
are Robert Geipel's longitudinal study of post-
earthquake social change in the Friuli region,
northern Italy (Geipel 1982; 1990) and William
Mitchell's studies of the aftermaths of earthquakes
inTurkey (Mitchell 1976; 1977). A theoretical basis
to reconstruction was given by Robert Kates' and
David Pijawka's comparative study of the
earthquakes in San Francisco in 1906, Alaska in
1964 and Nicaragua in 1972 (Kates and Pijawka
1977). Their model charts the progress of recovery
through four stages, including one of replacement
reconstruction and one of post-reconstruction
urban development. It has been taken up again and
adapted by development studies specialists (Kirkby
et al
. 1997). But when Hogg (1980) applied this
model to the aftermath of the two earthquakes
that occurred in Friuli in 1976 she found that the
pace, direction and relative success of
reconstruction varied geographically in relation to
the political and economic ties between
communities. It also varied temporally, as in Friuli
there were two main shocks separated by six
months and hence the reconstruction that had
begun at the time of the second earthquake was
abruptly set back (see Figure 5.5). Damaged
settlements that had effective leaderships and good
political ties to the centres of power were the first
to be reconstructed. It therefore appeared
misleading to use the Kates and Pijawka model to
characterise reconstruction in a spatially
aggregated way. Moreover, Geipel (1990) found
that reconstruction in Friuli led to disillusionment
and debt as a result of overambitious planning,
which strained the social system and forced the
pace of change.
Another factor that characterises the geography
of post-seismic reconstruction is geographical
inertia. Thus, Mileti and Passerini (1996) argued
that there are six reasons why reconstruction tends
to occur
in situ:
first, survivors want to return to
normal as soon as possible; second, damage is
seldom extensive enough to warrant wholesale
relocation; third, cultural values bind communities
to specific places; fourth, most procedures deal
with individual structures and property owners,
not with aggregate groups; fifth, funds are seldom
sufficient to allow complete relocation; and finally,
planning is not usually adequate to the task of
complete relocation.
In contrast to earthquakes, relatively little has
been done to study the social effects of volcanic
eruptions (Peterson 1988). However, thorough
studies were made of Mount St Helens after the
May 1980 eruption (Perry and Lindell 1990). In a
study of ash fall hazards, Warrick
et al
. (1981) found
that volcanic risks can be so widely dispersed and
so infrequently manifest that they may be poorly
perceived by potential victims. This situation is
typical of high-consequence, low-frequency
hazards in general.
The final aspect of applied social studies of
earthquakes and volcanic eruptions concerns
education and training. Both are an important part
