Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2030/41
Scenario 4
Sustainable
Mobility
2030/41
Scenario 2
Clean Mobility
2030/41
Scenario 3
Limited Change
2004/05/ 06/10
Baseline
2030/41
Scenario 1 BAU
2030/41/50
Equity Target
1990
London
1.5
1.3
1.4
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.5
Oxfordshire
2.1
3.1
4.1
2.5
2
0.8
0.5
Delhi
0.4
0.4
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.5
Jinan
0.1
0.2
2.0
1.2
0.8
0.5
0.5
Auckland
2.5
3.7
3.8
2.4
1.9
0.6
0.5
Baseline and Scenarios
Figure 8.6
Contraction and convergence in transport (CO2 emissions, per capita)
there are the differences in the priorities allocated by the decision-makers at various levels of
government, the key roles that the different actors play in influencing the policies, and the
awareness, role and influence of the public. All of these variables have a clear impact on
the levels of CO2 reduction. Some of these issues are tackled within the scenario process
through participation and debate over the policy options, and perhaps even through the multi-
criteria analysis carried out to give priorities and weightings to the decision-making. But a
major part also relates to the role that transport has in everyday life, the political process, and
the understanding of the limitations under which decision-makers operate. Good intentions
and strong commitment to radical change do not necessarily lead to strong action and the
achievement of large scale change necessary for sustainable transport.
In this topic, and this concluding chapter, a wide-ranging discussion has covered the practical
and the methodological issues concerning the use of scenarios in sustainable transport. One
of the overriding messages has been that the scale and speed of action needed for substantial
CO2 reduction (on BAU) has been totally underestimated. For example, in the Delhi case
study, there is a possibility to reduce the rate of increase in CO2 emissions under the BAU
2030 future by two-thirds, and this can be achieved through less travel distance (a reduction
of 20 per cent) and through the use of more efficient (and healthy) forms of transport.
International experience (such as found in Bogotá) is helpful in illustrating what can be done,
as there has been a major effort in terms of developing BRT and walking and cycling facilities
to achieve a better urban environment and a sustainable transport system. In a city with low
