Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
But as yet it has not been directly applied to the transport field. Such targets may be desirable
as end points, but obtaining international agreement on such tough targets is almost impossible,
as illustrated in the rather 'soft' CO2 targets achieved in the Kyoto Protocol (1997), which
in themselves have not been reached by many of the signatory states. It also ignores the legacy
that the developed countries have as the major polluters in the past. For many developing
countries, the climate change problem is seen as a Western industrialised country problem
(Saxena, 2012). Yet, sadly, CO2 emissions are unlike local air emissions, in that they do not
remain local. The impacts of a largely Western-induced climate problem are felt globally, and
the consequences will be most apparent in the developing world. An equitable or equal shares
approach to climate change policy-making provides one means to address the geopolitical
issues of fairness, even though it doesn't address the historical responsibilities for CO2
emissions. Alternatively, there could be two (or three) levels for emission targets, with higher
ones for developing countries and lower ones for developed countries in recognition of the
legacy, and a possible intermediate one for countries in the transitional stage.
Despite very different geographical and development contexts, similar types of scenarios
can be built for each of the different situations, even though the policy options must be adapted
to the particular local situation. The types of futures (clean mobility, limited change, and
sustainable transport) all have the same generic roots, and they are often constructed on similar
dimensions (e.g. market-based or more interventionist, planning-based policies, and different
levels of technological innovation). The differences concern the specifics of the policy measures
(or packages) being implemented in each location, the levels of application (investment and
wider initiative), and the timeline (pathways) over which the changes take place. In addition
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
-
2030/41
Scenario 3
Limited
Change
2030/41
Scenario 4
Sustainable
Mobility
2004/05/
06/10
Baseline
2030/41
Scenario 1
BAU
2030/41
Scenario 2
Clean Mobility
2030/41/50
Equity Target
1990
London
9,900,000
9,647,900
11,700,000
6,480,565
6,120,306
2,689,809
4,000,000
Oxfordshire
1,200,000
2,015,000
2,876,150
1,732,705
1,403,000
561,200
350,750
Delhi
3,121,712
6,146,651
26,298,177
19,711,040
12,629,030
9,459,180
12,886,766
Jinan
648,267
1,485,025
16,308,110
9,554,246
6,589,135
4,447,666
4,118,210
Auckland
2,400,000
5,140,000
8,030,000
5,188,680
4,106,599
1,314,496
1,061,085
Baseline and Scenarios
Figure 8.5
Comparative transport scenarios, CO2 emissions absolute
Note
: Different base years are used in the case studies dependent on what data was required and used in the original
research studies. For example, the baseline is 2004, 2005, 2006 or 2010 and the future scenarios are developed for either
2030 or 2041.
