Building a new world (Jinan) - Transport Climate Change and the City - page 227

Table 6.5 Transport CO2 emission reduction targets (Jinan)

Metric Data

CO2 1990 658,601 tCO2

(0.12 tCO2 per capita)

CO2 2030 Business as Usual (BAU) 9,580,235 tCO2

(1.16 tCO2 per capita)

GDP 1990 Chinese Yuan (CYN) 141.79 billion

(US$ 21.65 billion)

Growth rate @7%, GDP 2030 CYN 2123.23 billion

(US$ 324.18 billion)

CO2 Intensity (CO2/GDP), 1990 4,644.91 tCO2/billion CYN

CO2 Intensity (CO2/GDP), 2030 BAU 4,512.11 tCO2/billion CYN

(2.9% reduction on 1990)

TARGET 50% reduction in CO2 intensity 2,256.10 tCO2/billion CYN

to 2030 relative to 1990 levels (0.58 tCO2 per capita)

Note : 1 CNY = 0.152683 US$ (March 2011).

Accord, China pledged to reduce its economy's carbon intensity by 40-45 per cent by 2020
compared to 2005 levels. This allows economic growth, but reduces CO2 intensity, a relative
decoupling. Jinan's potential transport CO2 intensity calculations are shown in Table 6.5 ,
based on an equivalent levels to the national targets. The Chinese government has not developed
an absolute national reduction target, but there have been some estimates of the 'peak time'
for CO2 emissions in China, either between 2025 and 2030 (Energy Research Institute, 2009)
or 2030 and 2040 (UNDP, 2010). The VIBAT-Jinan modelling, developed in consultation
with Jinan officials, assumes a peak year for transport CO2 emissions for Jinan in 2025 and
a reduction of 5 per cent in 2030 compared to 2025. The intensity target is very difficult to
reach due to the huge expected increase in transport emissions, far outreaching even an assumed
7 per cent increase in GDP per annum. The BAU intensity in 2020 is a 230 per cent increase
relative to 2005. A 45 per cent CO2 intensity reduction target would require a much increased
GDP growth rate and/or reduction in transport CO2 emission growth rate.

Developing scenarios
Future scenarios can be generated in view of likely trends and uncertainties, and can be used
to help assess progress against targets. Trends and uncertainties for Jinan are given in Table
6.6 , covering issues likely to affect transport and urban development within the city, and
ranked according to uncertainty and impact. The prioritisation of impacts was carried out in
coordination with transport planning experts from Jinan. 7 The most important potential 'black
swans' (high uncertainty and high impact) are given scores of 1 and 2. These are migration
rates and level of environmental stewardship.
China's economy has grown rapidly with an 8-11 per cent annual growth rate during the
last two decades. It is likely to continue to grow but the rate may slow. The Chinese government
has set a target of 8.7 per cent for 2011, down from 10.3 per cent in 2010, while international
banking forecasts estimate that China's economy will grow by 8.4 per cent in 2012. China's
twelfth 5-Year Plan assumes an economic growth target for this period (2011-2015) of 7.0
per cent annually. China seeks to address rising inequality and to create an environment for