Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 4.4
Major trends and uncertainties affecting transport
Trends and uncertainties
Ranking
Economy and governmental
Economic growth rate (e.g. GDP or other growth metric)
Funding for transport investment and urban development
**1
Income levels, income inequality
Tertiary education sector growth
Socio-demographics
Population growth
Age profile (including an ageing population)
Aspirations and culture - continued 'western consumption' model?
Technologies
Clean vehicle technologies
**2
Energy and power supply - renewable sources
Environmental
Major environmental shocks - changing climate, flooding, water supply
Quality of environment and ecology
Urban issues and transport planning
Environmental issues - stewardship, extent of 'seriousness' given to them
in policy making and implementation
**3
Urban design and built environment quality
Extent of development and urban sprawl
Level of sustainability in travel, investment in public transport,
walking and cycling
In Oxfordshire, and indeed much of the UK, funding levels are likely to be a severe
constraint on efforts to achieve sustainable travel. The policy intention will, as ever, be there
- the 'policy sections' of local transport plans or other transport strategies mostly read very
well - but the implementation programme in terms of schemes and initiatives are usually very
different to the objectives. Funding problems are evident in the short term, but also over the
Funding Levels
SCENARIO 1: BAU ICE
CAR DEPENDENT
RURAL AREAS
SCENARIO 2: CLEAN
MOBILITY
SCENARIO 3:
SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Environmental
Stewardship
Clean Vehicle
Technologies
Figure 4.15
The possibility space for transport scenarios in Oxfordshire
