Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
A critical issue remains in developing a greater level of engagement and involvement of
policy-makers, businesses and the general public, at all levels of decision-making. This is
essential. It is not just a question of whether challenging targets can be achieved through the
creative combinations of policy packages. There is also a need to get all stakeholders to 'buy
into' and 'own' changed future travel behaviours so that real progress can be made. Hence
the development of the TC-SIM simulation and participation tool in the London analysis. Such
tools can aim to raise awareness about the nature and scale of change required, and to facilitate
the discussion of potential pathways. This can only become very important in future years.
Ownership of solutions and future lifestyles will be critical, especially where 'trend-breaks'
- significantly different to the norm - are being discussed.
The scenario analysis and backcasting approach offers a way forward to this extremely
challenging future policy and lifestyle dilemma. London can provide a model for achieving
deep transport CO2 reductions in a Western industrialised, and modern, compact and polycentric
city. But the huge challenge now is to develop a consensus around future pathways to carbon
efficiency in the transport sector. And then - the difficult step - to enable and actually achieve
a level of consumer and behavioural change consistent with the strategic ambitions.
Notes
1
The VIBAT-London study was led by Halcrow and University of Oxford, Transport Studies Unit with
Space Syntax and funded by the UrbanBuzz programme, Higher Education Funding Council for England
(HEFCE) and Department for Innovation and Skills (DIUS), 2007-09 (Hickman et al., 2009a).
2
Sir Patrick Abercrombie developed the County of London Plan (1943) (with J. H. Forshaw, then chief
architect, at the London County Council) and the Greater London Plan (1944), which are both commonly
referred to as 'The Abercrombie Plan'.
3
The population trend for London follows a U-shape, with a peak of 8.6 million in 1939, a decline to
6.7 million in 1988 with governmental policy explicitly encouraging low development densities and
dispersal to areas beyond London. A rebound was experienced to the present day levels of 7.6 million,
associated with a GLA encouragement of growth. Much of the growing population is located in East
London.
4
Metro-land was revisited in 1973 by poet Sir John Betjeman in his famous TV documentary: 'A verge
in front of your house and grass and a tree for the dog . . . in fact the country had come to the suburbs.
Roses are blooming in Metro-land just as they do in the brochures.'
5
The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). As of July 2010, 191 states have signed and ratified the protocol, these include thirty-nine
industrialised countries and the European Union (known as the 'Annex I' countries) who commit themselves
to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 per cent from 1990 levels. The targets are
cross-sectoral. Transport emissions are for ground-based, domestic transport only; hence do not include
emissions by international aviation and shipping - see
Chapter 1
.
6
'Ground-based aviation', in the London context, is defined as all travel under 1,000 metres in height,
including passenger travel and freight.
7
The modelling was provided by Transport for London and used the London Travel Survey strategic model
(LTS) and a public transport model (Railplan). The runs were largely based on scenarios from T2025 -
particularly the Reference Case, Scenario 1 and Full Programme, Scenario 4 as found in T2025.
8
TC-SIM London and the other simulation tools developed under the VIBAT series of studies can be
accessed via
www.vibat.org
