Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
highway capacity upgrades. The temporary lack of knowledge and familiarity with the
issues at the centre is often exploited by the road lobby. This needs to be avoided with
cross-party support developed for a long term vision and the broad strategy to achieve
this. Hence, over time, more consistent progress can be made towards strategic goals.
The strategy discussed for London is to take a very ambitious approach and use as many
of the potential policy levers as possible that have a high potential to contribute to carbon
reduction targets. The assumption within the modelling is that a very high degree of successful
implementation is possible, and that the benefits can be captured with limited rebound effects.
This enhances the CO2 reduction potential of the optimised strategy, and a positive conclusion
can be reached, namely that the target of a 60 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions in transport
can be achieved. But this may be overly optimistic, as such a successful outcome would
require major effort, including investment beyond that considered even in the T2025 Scenario
4 (which was itself a very ambitious strategy).
Continuing to 'exhort at the margins' will not lead to the required level of change in travel
behaviour and transport CO2 reduction. Actions need to move beyond simply 'encouraging'
or 'nudging' people to change their behaviour. London is one of the leading cities in investing
in public transport and in charging for car use in the central area. But even here there is
a long way to go. Achieving deep CO2 emissions reductions - up to 60, 80 and even 90
per cent - will be exceedingly difficult in the transport sector. Much of travel would need to
be electric and clean (with a clean fuel source), and trip-making much more local, and/or
involve higher levels of electronic interaction than at present. The likelihood of achieving this
type of deep CO2 reduction in transport seems very unlikely, based on current policy-making
and investment, unless a radically revised policy approach is adopted.
We should remind ourselves of the thoughts of John Wyndham (1953, pp. 221-223):
One day we walked down to Trafalgar Square. The tide was in, and the water reached
nearly to the top of the wall on the northern side, below the National Gallery. We leant
on the balustrade, looking at the water washing around Landseer's lions, wondering what
Nelson would think of the view his statue was getting now [. . .] She took my arm, and
we started to walk westward. Halfway to the corner of the Square we paused at the sound
of a motor. It seemed, improbably, to come from the south side. We waited while it drew
closer. Presently, out from the Admiralty Arch swept a speedboat. It turned in a sharp
arc and sped away down Whitehall, leaving the ripples of its wake slopping through the
windows of august Governmental offices.
Perhaps the gap between reality and unreality is closing - the near science fiction is
becoming more believable. The increased frequency in the raising of the Thames Barrier
indicates that we need to start to change the trends to a radical degree in transport. The business
as usual projection in transport CO2 emissions is not tenable, yet it seems very difficult to
engender major changes in the political and public understanding of travel and its environmental
impacts, of the required changes in investment programmes and in travel behaviours. The
analysis within this chapter has not considered funding issues, and clearly these are critical,
particularly in an era of financial constraints in countries such as the UK. Perhaps the more
'inexpensive' options, such as land-use planning, walking and cycling, smarter travel choices
and legislative change (vehicle emissions) will become more attractive here; perhaps a much
increased investment in public transport infrastructure can be used as a stimulus investment.
There are also important issues to incorporate in the analysis beyond ground transport, including
international air and shipping.
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