Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
The scenario analysis and backcasting methodologies provide very useful approaches here,
helping decision-makers discuss and respond to these strategic policy concerns. A more open
discussion of the strategic policy choices can also lead to changed public awareness of the
issues, and perhaps public demand for significant action on policy.
The scenario development stage is worth examining in more detail as it usually proves to be
the most creative and interesting of all, and a method still needs to be followed to ensure a
systematic development of future images. This is an approach that has not really penetrated
the world of more conventional transport strategy development, but it could make a major
contribution to strategies that look over the longer term, are more robust to external factors,
and can help address societal problems. The following process utilises the matrix approach
to scenario development (Wack, 1985b; Schwartz, 1996; Van der Heijden, 1996; Frommelt,
2008), and works best if largely carried out in a workshop setting in a participatory manner.
This provides another essential involvement of the stakeholders, so that they can get an
appreciation of the different opportunities available as well as the difficulty of achieving the
targets set. The value of the participatory element is to add some level of acceptability, in
the sense that the scenario has been tested with technical specialists, political leaders or local
people, the very people who will be expected to change their travel behaviours. Their
involvement increases the likelihood of successful implementation as they have some apprecia-
tion of the objectives and the means to achieve the desired outcomes.
Pre-workshop
1
Study focus
: defining the key issue, perhaps formulated as a research question(s), upon
which to build the scenarios. The objective, for example, may be to explore how transport
may reduce CO2 emissions for a particular city.
2
Pre-workshop interviewing
: this may be used to understand people's viewpoints and
current strategic thinking concerning the future. The results can be shared at the work-
shop to rapidly build a knowledge base of understanding concerning the external
environment.
Scenario workshop
3
The context
(a)
Driving forces
: these will include variables that have large impacts on the main issue
and potential scenarios in question. They are usually out of our control and consist
usually of macro political and economic trends, or even strategic technological
developments or environmental degradation. Some of these will involve predetermined
elements (the numbers of people reaching retirement age) whilst others are more
uncertain (migration flows and directions, economic growth, traffic growth, vehicle
technology penetration rates). Some of these are critical uncertainties, and conse-
quentially they will have large impacts.
(b)
Uncertainty review
: predetermined elements and critical uncertainties are closely
related; perceived predetermined elements should be questioned and it may be possible
to move some into the uncertainty category.
