Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 2.15
Futuristic monorail and helicopter, 1971 (gouache on paper), English School (20th century). Our
transport futures may involve new emerging vehicle technologies and ICT developments, but
perhaps also the more 'mundane' in the sense of much more use of the 'old' transport technologies
of walking and cycling.
Source
: Private collection/© Look and Learn/The Bridgeman Art Library.
There is some discussion as to the possibilities for mapping out the path from future image
to the current situation (Åkerman and Höjer, 2006), given that there is inherent uncertainty
surrounding the future. However, most analyses will be able to develop a 'backcast' based
on current knowledge. The difficulty that scenario analyses (and indeed forecasting) face are
that without the backcasting stage and the development of an implementation pathway,
scenario building remains focused on only a theoretical future and can be difficult to justify
in terms of realism and acceptability (i.e. which scenario we believe is possible to implement,
if any).
Policy development is, of course, much easier if it works in the same direction as the
trends, perhaps anticipating emerging trends and working with them, perhaps shaping them
to a limited degree. But, in terms of climate change and oil scarcity, and the quality of the
urban fabric, there is a set of policy challenges that appear to be much more difficult to tackle.
The dominant trends, such as the rise in CO2 emissions, need to be broken, indeed reversed.
