Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
backcasting) allows different actors a strong foundation for discussing goals and developing
strategies that may help achieve societal goals. France has similarly followed a strong research
tradition called
La Prospective
(translated as developing scenarios of future states),
and Germany one of
Leitbilder
(inspiring visions or guiding images) (Dreborg, 1996; Banister
et al., 2000).
Backcasting approaches are often conflated with more general scenario analysis, and there
are many overlapping elements, but backcasting also has a distinct element in being removed
from historical and current trends and considering the pathway back from a future state. Hence,
backcasting has developed as a particular form of scenario building. Many approaches to
scenario analysis think of the future as extending from the present, an extrapolation of the
timeline from the past. This perspective has the problem of carrying the 'baggage' of the past
and present into the future. This can limit creativity, creating only conventional future images.
The alternative is to ignore the previous and current trends, to envision a future state, and
then 'cast backward' to establish the means by which we might get there. This future image
can be 'plausible or fantastical, preferred or catastrophic' (Bishop et al., 2007).
The approach has its origins in the work of Lovins (1977), who developed the concept of
the 'soft path', referring to the development of efficient, diverse and renewable energy usage.
This was developed by Robinson (1982; 1990) and others from the late 1970s onwards.
Robinson describes backcasting as:
a concern, not with what futures are likely to happen, but with how desirable futures can
be attained. It is thus explicitly normative, involving working backwards from a particular
desirable endpoint to the present in order to determine the physical suitability of that
future and what policy measures would be required to reach that point.
(Robinson, 1990, p. 822)
Backcasting can thus be viewed as a normative scenario, but with an additional and explicit
step in the development of the pathway back from an image or scenario of the future to the
present. Dreborg (1996) sees backcasting as important where there are highly complex problems
evident, where dominant trends are part of the problem, and where the scope of the problem
and time horizon allow the development of very different futures. He also comments on the
important role of backcasting in its role of 'discovery' rather than merely justification of
different futures.
There was a particularly strong backcasting debate in Sweden over energy futures in the
1970s and 1980s. Many of the initial approaches were developed in this period, including by
Steen et al., 1978, 1980 and 1983 (described in Johansson and Steen, 1978; Johansson et al.,
1983; Lönnroth et al., 1983). More recently, futures studies have been carried out on broader
sustainability issues and climate change, such as in household consumption, recycling and
waste management, and passenger and freight transport (Dreborg and Steen, 1994; Jungmar,
1995; Peters et al., 1998; Steen, 1997). The well-known OECD project on Environmentally
Sustainable Transport (EST!) (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development,
2000; Geurs and van Wee, 2000; 2004) and the EU POSSUM project (EU POSSUM, 1998;
Banister et al., 2000) introduced the backcasting methodology to the transport planning field
in Europe.
