Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
with high impact and high uncertainty) and high importance as axes, and a two-by-two scenario
matrix is created, such that two driving forces produce four scenarios. The scenarios can be
named at this stage, ideally with key words or a 'strapline' expressing the basic nature of the
storyline.
The main benefits of scenario building within decision-making (May, 1982) are outlined
as below:
• Providing useful frameworks to decisions: allowing a range of alternatives and different
assumptions to be explored;
• Identifying dangers and opportunities: considering a range of alternative futures increases
the likelihood of identifying possible problems and opportunities;
• Suggesting a variety of possible approaches: the use of scenarios may generate a range
of approaches to tackle issues or problems whereas the use of forecasts, based on single
theories or simple extrapolations, often leads to the pursuit of singular solutions;
• Helping to assess alternative policies and actions - scenarios may be used to identify the
usefulness of different policies under alternative future conditions;
• Increased creativity and choice in decision-making: identifying possible future develop-
ments and avoiding the acceptance of current trends as inevitable opens up new possibilities
for policy development.
Similarly Stauffer (2002) suggests there at least five reasons why scenario planning may
be useful:
•
To ensure that you are not focusing on catastrophe to the exclusion of opportunity;
•
To help you allocate resources more prudently;
•
To preserve your options;
•
To ensure that you are not still fighting the last war;
•
To give your company (or transport sector or city) the opportunity to rehearse for future
challenges.
Few scenario studies are used as a blueprint of the desirable future or an action plan. Instead
Steen (1997) and Van den Belt (1988) pursue the idea of a continual revision of targets as
new knowledge is gained, labelled as constructive technology assessment (CTA). In addition,
Van der Heijden (1996) raises an important dimension concerning the participatory elements,
and the need for raising the level of debate and transparency around certain policy questions.
He proposes the 'strategic conversation', a discussion around the scenarios and likely
implications, leading to continuous organisational (or city) learning about key decisions and
priorities.
Scenario analysis is still well-used in industry, including Shell's recent study that considers
the likely impacts of the recession in the Western industrialised nations (Shell International,
2011). There are further applications throughout the energy industry, and also in wider corporate
strategy. The UK government has used scenario approaches to help develop policy, particularly
through the Foresight Programme, for example in Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (Department
for Trade and Industry and Office of Science and Technology, 2006), and Land Use Futures
(Department for Trade and Industry and Office of Science and Technology, 2010). There are
many further examples internationally. These types of analyses help to define a broader con-
ceptual framework for discussing the future and contribute to policy formulation. The Swedish
have traditionally been very strong in developing futures studies, and their tradition (e.g. in
