Future Sustainability Challenges in Hindu Kush-Himalaya - Impact of Global Changes on Mountains: Responses and Adaptation - page 233

Figure 10.3. Rural and urban population and the future projection in HKH region (Rosegrant
et al. 2002).
warming is likely to impact monsoon patterns, and any minor change in the
monsoon pattern has an immediate and discernible effect on the Himalayan
rivers (SFG 2011). Especially, shift in the location, intensity and variability
of rain and snow due to climate change will likely have a greater impact
on regional water supply (NAS 2012). An anticipated 40% exceeding water
demand by 2030 and nearly 80% of the region's water is used in agricultural
production, are likely to threaten the food security (GWP 2011).
The Himalayan countries with the largest population (more than 2.2
billion people are expected by 2050) (World Bank 2009a and Fig. 10.4)
and the highest incidence of poverty on Earth, are also vulnerable to the
impact of climate change from i) threats to water supply and food security;
ii) urbanization; and iii) vulnerability to natural disasters (World Bank
2012b, GWP 2011). The rising food prices are already worsening poverty in
Asia, where about 600 million people are living on less than US$ 1.2 a day
(Hidellage 2003). In addition, 70% of the 210 million people living in the
HKH are poor, threatened by food insecurity, environmental problems and
disasters (Hoermann and Kollmair 2009). A recent trend shows increasing
numbers of natural disasters in the HKH region (Fig. 10.5). UNISDR
reported seven of the top 10 global natural disasters by number of deaths
occurred in four of the Himalayan countries (Bangladesh, China, India and
Pakistan), and accounted 82% of the total natural disaster-related deaths
worldwide in 2007 (UNEP 2008).