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evidence of historical narratives of this much studied case [29-32]. The evidence sug-
gests a two-level design of the model, namely to specify the mechanisms of the escala-
tion dynamics as a recursive feedback between political actors and a socio-cultural dy-
namics at the population level. While a focus purely on the population level [33] mask
the responsibility of political actors, explanations that focus purely on the political level
[31] need to explain why certain politics had been successful. Integrating both accounts
generates a self-organised feedback cycle of political actors and attitudes. On the one
hand politicians mobilise value orientations in the population to get public support. On
the other hand, politicians appeal to the most popular value orientations in order to
maximise the support. In abstract terms, the feedback relation can be described as a
recursive function.
The simulation model cannot be explained here [34]. Simulation experiments had
been undertaken with the Bayesian assumption of complete ignorance about the em-
pirical distribution of the political attitude of the citizens and the political agenda of
the politicians. Initially both are determined by chance. This is a theoretical experi-
ment to study the pure effect of the feedback cycle. The model is only calibrated at
the population census of 1991. Thus differences in the dynamics are due to differen-
tial population distribution. The results reveal theoretical insights by generating styl-
ised facts of two basic mechanisms of the escalation dynamics. The first mechanism
concerns political processes, the second mechanisms concerns micro processes of
neighbourhood relations. The inter-penetration of the processes reveals a sequential
ordering:
•
First,
visibility of the political appeals plays an essential role for radicalisation.
Initial radicalisation attempts stimulate counter-radicalisation. This is driven by the
political level. Its effectiveness accounts for a rather homogeneous population.
Ethnically mixed populations such as in Bosnia-Herzegovina provide more power
of resistance against political radicalisation prior to the outbreak of actual violence.
This casts doubt on the widespread scepticism about the political stability of multi-
ethnic republics such as Bosnia-Herzegovina.
•
Second,
refugees and rumours play an essential role to reach a stage of self-
perpetuating radicalisation. This holds for the later radicalisation in Bosnia-
Herzegovina. Here, radicalisation is imported from outside. In contrast to the early
radicalisation, the radicalisation is driven predominantly by the population level. In
this process, dense networks increase the likelihood of the spreading of radicalisa-
tion. A comparative analysis shows that once a stage of self-perpetuating micro-
level radicalisation is reached, multi-ethnic societies are in danger of much more
intensive violence than homogeneous societies.
These results are not limited to an idiographic description of the particular case of the
former Yugoslavia but may also hold for other cases. Thus a simulation based on the
empirically grounded evidence of a certain case enables to generate stylised facts
which reveal a middle range theory of mechanisms of ethno-nationalist radicalisation.
5
Conclusion
The paper argues that the theoretical element in a Grounded Theory approach can be
strengthened by supplementing the methodology of Grounded Theory with evidence
