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Fig. 7.
Subpopulation size in time (number of women in stages: Sw, HPVw, Rw or
StageIIw for given age cohorts. 1: 15-19, 2: 20-24, 3: 25-34, 4: 35-64, 5: over 65.
5 Conclusion and Discussion
We compared trajectories of new cancer cases detection for all scenarios (Figure
5). Fitted plateau (with small decay - Figure 2) in the first 25 years of simulation
(1989-2014) corresponds to the situation in Poland (around 10
9 deaths per
day), so this setting of the model can be used to test alternative scenarios. The
best strategy, in the long run and with respect to the total number of cervical
cancer cases, is to vaccinate girls before starting sexual life (we even chose to test
these scenarios at the worst values of other control parameters), and this could
be expected taking into account corresponding studies from other countries. For
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