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4 Results and Validation
Performed simulations agreed in historical area (Figure 2) for all new cancer cases
[21] registered (since 1989) and also for given age-cohorts (registry made since
1999). Possible regimes of future states show increase or decrease of new cancer
case (Figure 5). Only vaccination will allow Poles to continue process of decreas-
ing cancer prevalence in Poland. For other scenarios for different health care
level or sexuality increase it could be better of worse, but even most pessimistic
assumptions (75% of sexulatity increase and effective screening frequency at the
level of every 7.5 year) are still not the worst possible as we can imagine.
We show trajectories of different stocks and flow of model (Figure 7, 6) to
check if possible outcomes seem to be realistic and validate model this way.
We can observe huge increase of HPV (in both stages) and cancer prevalence
in cohort of oldest woman (Figure 7, 6 StageIIw5, HPVw5 and development5),
which was already predicted by other cancer researchers [21], [24].
Fig. 6.
Chosen stocks and flows in time. Flows show number of women who developed
cancer per day for given age cohorts: development2: 20-24, development3: 25-34, de-
velopment4: 35-64, development5: over 65. Stocks show number of men in stages: Sm,
HPVm, Rm (subpopulation size in time).
