Direct Impacts of Climate Change on Freshwater Ecosystems - Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Ecosystems - page 42

Figure 3.3 (a) Changes in winter (December-February) and summer (June-August) mean
surface air temperature in the Rossby Centre coupled regional climate model (RCAO)
simulations (scenario minus control period). Contours and shading are at intervals of 1°C.
(b) Changes in winter and summer mean precipitation (percent differences from the
control period). (RCAO-H indicates RCAO driven by the HadAM3 Global Climate Model
(Hadley Centre, the United Kingdom), RCAO-E indicates RCAO driven by the ECHAM/
OPYC3 Global Climate Model (Max Planck Institute, Germany); A2 and B2 give the
emission scenarios the simulations are based on.) (Modified from Räisänen et al . 2003.)
in Switzerland (June to August 2003) exceeded the long-term mean by more than
5 standard deviations (Fig. 3.5). Schär et al . (2004) showed that this extremely
unlikely event (in statistical terms) is explained well by GCM and Regional Climate
Model (RCM) projections for the end of this century, which predict a regime with
increases in both mean temperature and temperature variability (Fig. 3.4c).