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of nature-society system with consideration of different relationship between spatial
and temporal scales does not give a desired result without the principles of sus-
10.2 Global Survivability Problems
10.2.1 Sustainable Development and Ecoinformatics
The present ecological situation worldwide can be exempli
ed by growing insta-
bility, a civilization crisis, the global scale of which is expressed through deterio-
ration of humans and animals habitats. The dominant features in global ecodynamics
in the late 20th
early 21st century include the rapid growth in population (mainly in
developing countries), urban population growth at the expense of rural population
(the growing number of cities), broadening scales of dangerous diseases as HIV/
AIDS, hepatitis, tuberculosis, etc. UN data predict global population in 2050 to reach
8.9 billion people. This means that the decrease in per capita consumption (expected
as a result of the growing ef
-
ciency of technologies) will be cancelled out by the
impact of population growth. For instance, if meat consumption by an average
American increases by 20 % by 2050 (compared with 2000), then due to the growth
of population size in the U.S.A. the total mean consumption will increase by 5
million tons. An important general fact is that despite the prevailing growth of
population size in developing countries, their contribution to the impact on the
environment will not necessarily exceed that reached in developed countries. For
instance, U.S. population size will annually increase by about 3 million people and in
India by 16 million people, but the impact of the U.S.A. on the environment (due to
its higher per capita consumption) will be more substantial. This is illustrated, in
particular, by estimates of the growing CO
2
emissions to the atmosphere: 15.7
million tC in the U.S.A., and 4.9 million tC in India.
The paradox of the contemporary situation is that despite all the unprecedented
scale discussions on sustainable development, the world is continuing an unsus-
tainable way of development. There are numerous ideas and principles to achieve
sustainable development in different regions and in whole world. But all investi-
gations in this area is restricted by solution of special problems connected with
concrete region or ecosystem. Consideration of global nature-society system is
possible with the GIMS technology application. In this case realization of global
model for the parameterization of nature-society system dynamics needs the mea-
sures of key importance including the following:
There is a necessity to realize that further development of the consumption
society will lead to a global ecological catastrophe and the collapse of civili-
zation. The solution of this problem can only be a refusal of the traditional
paradigm of the consumption society and a radical change of life style towards
spiritual values.
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