Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
To remove the present social contrasts between
there
is an urgent need to help the developing countries in many ways, according to
the recommendations which have been adopted by the UN.
'
the south
'
and
'
the north
'
￿
Since the level of understanding of the problem of social and environmental
dynamics remains low, the support of interdisciplinary studies has particular
importance. It would be important to organize the international scienti
￿
c dis-
cussions on sustainable development problems in the context of
Rio+10
,
concerning
first of all the problem of priorities and quantitative assessments of
various threats for modern civilization.
Global change priorities are aimed at assessing changes in the NSS taking place
in the past, those observed now, and possibly those in the future. A detailed realistic
analysis of the prospects of civilization development can be realized with global
model principal scheme of which is given in Figs. 1.18 , 1.20 and 1.21 .
The main priorities of studies of the NSS dynamics include:
￿
conceptual and analytical approaches to studies of interactions in the NSS;
￿
discovery of connections of the environment and socio-economic development
with ecological policy;
￿
establishing connections between environmental changes taking place now and
possible in the future;
substantiation of the means that can be used to study these connections;
￿
observance of the laws of the international ecological rights in national envi-
ronmental programmes; and
￿
revealing gaps in scienti
c developments and estimates.
￿
These basic principles should be realized by taking the following four general
requirements into account:
Coordination of
scienti
c
developments,
ecological
policy
and
their
￿
accomplishment.
Consideration of interaction of ecodynamics with socio-economic development.
￿
Examination of special features of the processes on different spatial scales.
￿
Re
fl
ection of special features of the processes on different spatial scales.
￿
The following fact is the necessity to take into account an interaction of the key
problems of ecodynamics determined by the presence of numerous feedbacks in the
NSS and non-linearity due to which the
(Frankham 1995) can
occur as well as synergism of technologies and ecological policy. Numerous
illustrations of the urgency of taking into account different interactions are con-
tained in the problems of global climate change.
An adequate analysis of the role of feedbacks and NSS non-linearity is seriously
complicated by available fragmentary information. In this connection, the fact
disappoints that the conception of biotic regulation of the environment developed in
Russia, which could have served a conceptual basis for resolving the problems of
global ecodynamics, has not been recognized yet (Gorshkov et al. 1998, 2000,
2002, 2004; Krapivin and Nazaryan 1995). Unfortunately, the biotic regulation
threshold effects
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