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the primary energy in this region to 2030 can be more than double. At the same
time oil extraction can increase approximately by 75 % and gas by three times. A
quota of this region within the oil extraction will increase from 35 to 44 % in 2030.
All this will be possible under the investments of 56 billion dollars per year to the
energetic infrastructure development in the countries of Middle East and North
Africa. It is connected with de
ned levels of the risk for the countries G8. Different
scenarios of the development for the regions of Middle East and North Africa are
here naturally arisen to be connected with levels of investments and prices a con-
sideration of which introduces the uncertainty in global CO
2
emission (Cozzi 2003;
IEA 2013c).
Special IPCC Reports (IPCC 2005, 2007) and IEA (2013a, b, c) analyzing the
information of long standing analysis of the environment changes give a set of
assessments and make some conclusions about the tendencies and causes of these
changes:
World proved oil reserves at the end of 2012 reached 1668.9 billion barrels,
suf
cient to meet 52.9 years of global production. World oil production increased
by 1.9 million b/d in 2012, more than double the growth of global consumption.
World proved natural gas reserves at end-2012 stood at 187.3 trillion m
3
, suffi-
-
cient to meet 55.7 years of global production. World natural gas production
increased by 1.9 % in 2012. World proved reserves of coal in 2012 were suf
cient
to meet 109 years of global production. Global coal production grew by 2 %.
Global energy consumption and related CO
2
entering to the atmosphere in 21st
century continues to increase. Fossil fuels deliver 86 % of world energy and are
the source for 75 % of anthropogenic emission of CO
2
to the atmosphere. World
energy consumption increases from 524 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu)
in 2010 to 630 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and 820 quadrillion in 2040, a 30-year
increase of 56 %.
Global consumption of primary energy increased in the average with speed
equaled to 1.4 % during 1990
1995 and with speed 1.6 % from 1995 to 2001.
Under this, the rates of energy consumption increase are distributed by the
economics sectors with the following shares: 0.3
-
0.9 % in industry, 2.1
2.2 %
-
-
in the transport, 2.1
2.4 % in the
agriculture. According to IEA (2013a, b, c) data from 1990 to 2012, the average
energy use per person increased 10 % while world population increased 27 %.
Regional energy use also grew from 1990 to 2008: the Middle East increased by
170 %, China by 146 %, India by 91 %, Africa by 70 %, Latin America
by 66 %, the USA by 20 %, the EU-27 block by 7 %, and world overall grew by
39 %.
2.7 % in the building sector and
−
0.8 to
−
-
In 2008,
total worldwide
energy consumption was 474 EJ
(132,000 TWh). This is equivalent
to an average power use of 15 TW
10
10
hp). The annual potential for renewable energy is: solar energy
1,575 EJ (438,000 TWh), wind power 640 EJ (180,000 TWh), geothermal
energy 5,000 EJ (1,400,000 TWh), biomass 276 EJ (77,000 TWh), hydropower
50 EJ (14,000 TWh) and ocean energy 1 EJ (280 TWh).
×
(2.0
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