Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
While the factors of enhancement of either changes or stability of climate are
comparatively well known, the understanding of the factors in the spatial distri-
bution of anomalies over large regions, including the globe, is of great importance.
In this connection, further studies of various modes of the general circulation of the
atmosphere and the ocean (ENSO, DO oscillations, etc.) are important, as it is
the respective improvement of general circulation models. Most important here are
the potential effects of abrupt climatic changes on ecology and economy, as current
estimates are generally based on the assumption of slow and gradual change.
Abrupt climate changes were especially substantial in periods of the transition of
one climatic state to another. Therefore, if anthropogenic forcings of climate can
favor the drifting of the climate system towards a threshold level, the possibility of
raising the probability of abrupt climate changes also increases. Of great importance
has not only the amount but also the rate of anthropogenic forcings on the climate
system. So, for instance, a faster climate warming should favor a stronger attenu-
ation of the thermohaline circulation, as this may promote an acceleration of the
shift to the threshold of climatic changes (it is important that under these conditions,
thermohaline circulation dynamics becomes less predictable). To accept adequate
solutions in the
field of ecological policy, a deeper understanding of the whole
spectrum of possible sudden climate changes is extremely important. Dif
culties in
the identi
cation and quantitative estimation of all possible causes of sudden cli-
mate change and low predictability near threshold levels, testify the fact that the
problem of abrupt climate changes will always be aggravated by more serious
uncertainties, than the problem of slow change. Under these conditions the
development of ways to provide the stability and high adaptability of economics
and ecosystems is of great importance.
5.4 Interactive Components of Climate System
5.4.1 Anomalous Situations and Climate
Kosaka and Xie (2013) considered the hiatus in global warming mentioned that
despite the continued increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations, the annual-
mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-
rst century. Figure
5.14
represent variations of temperature for 2002
2012. Compared to seasonal norms, in
September 2013 the coolest area on the globe was south of South Africa in the
southern ocean, where temperatures in the troposphere were about 2.49
-
C cooler
than normal. The warmest area was in the Wilkes Land area of the east Antarctic,
where tropospheric temperatures were 5.20
°
C warmer than seasonal norms.
Climate change manifests itself both on global and regional scales. One of the
important features of climate formation not only on regional but also on global
scales consists in considerable variability determined by internal dynamics of cli-
mate system. One of the most substantial factors of internal dynamics is the El
Ni
ñ
°
o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. One of the recent climate warming due to
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