Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Diagnostic analysis to get a deeper understanding of the dynamics of climate
system and its components, including evaluation of contributions of natural
climate change.
Development and analysis of reliability of various hypotheses on the factors of
climatic variability on different spatial-temporal scales, as well as assessment of
climate predictability.
Studies of various climate-forming dynamic, physical, chemical, and biological
processes with their interactivity taken into account.
Further improvement of climate models for climate forecasts on time scales
from inter-seasonal to inter-annual variability.
The latter problem is especially urgent: despite serious achievements in devel-
opment of methods of numerical climate modeling, the current climate models are
still
first of all, consideration (parameterization) of
chemical and biological processes in the climate system. Still unresolved funda-
mental problems of climate theory include:
inadequate. This concerns,
interactive numerical modeling of climate and carbon cycle (Cracknell et al.
2009; Kondratyev and Krapivin 2004a; Kondratyev et al. 2003c);
consideration of biospheric dynamics including continental and marine eco-
systems in this context of importance, is the concept of biotic regulation of the
environment (Kondratyev et al. 2003d, e); and
parameterization of chemical processes in the troposphere and stratosphere,
simulation of paleoclimate dynamics (Lohmann and Sirocko 2004; Lohmann
et al. 2004; Mikolajewicz et al. 2004; Schneider et al. 2004; Sirocko et al. 2004),
etc.
The analysis of adequacy of the numerical modeling results by comparing with
observational data is of decisive importance. The problem of primary importance is
the development of approaches to NSS numerical modeling. This will require an
accomplishment of an ef
cient coordination of efforts within four main international
programmes: WCRP, IGBP, IHDP, and DIVERSITAS. In this connection, one
should mention a timely appearance in IGBP of the programme AIMES (analysis,
integration, and numerical modeling of the Earth system). The challenge for
AIMES is to achieve a deeper and more quantitative understanding of the role of
human perturbations to the Earth
s biogeochemical cycles and their interactions
with the coupled physical climate system. AIMES will focus on:
'
The functioning of global biogeochemical cycles, including interactions and
feedbacks with the physical climate system;
The interplay between human activities and biogeochemical cycles, both in the
past and into the future;
How the biogeochemical cycles function on different time scales.
first of all, with the WCRP
perspectives based mainly on results obtained in the course of completed pro-
grammes, such as TOGA (study of Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere:
The program of future climate studies is connected,
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