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1985
1994); WOCE (World Ocean Circulation Experiment: 1982
2002); ACSYS
-
-
(study of the Arctic climate: 1994
s Arctic
Climate System Study (ACSYS) project is to ascertain the role of the Arctic in
global climate by attempting to
2003). The scienti
c goal of the WCRP
'
-
find answers to the following related questions
(Lemke and Jacobi 2012):
What are the global consequences of natural or human-induced change in the
Arctic climate system?
Is the Arctic climate system as sensitive to increased greenhouse gas concen-
trations as climate models suggest?
Problems of TOGA and WOCE will be continued within the project CLIVAR to
study the climate variability on time scales from seasons (with emphasis on the
problem of monsoons) to centuries (in this case, detection and assessment of
anthropogenic impacts on climate will play a key role), the main goals of which are:
Description and understanding of physical processes responsible for variability
and predictability of climate on seasonal, inter-annual, decadal, and centennial
scales based on the use of available observations data and interactive models of
climate system.
Use of paleoclimatic information for a better understanding of present (and
possibly future) climate change.
Development of methods to forecast climate change on scales from seasonal to
inter-annual based on the use of global interactive prognostic models.
Understanding and prediction of the climate system
s response to increasing
concentrations of MGCs and aerosol, as well as subsequent comparison of
numerical modeling results with observational data with emphasis on separation
of anthropogenic changes from natural climate
'
“
signals
”
.
An accomplishment of the CLIVAR project should answer the following
questions, in particular:
Will El Ni
ñ
o take place next year?
What climate will be in Asia next summer and will the next monsoon bring
droughts or
fl
oods?
What will be the next winter in Northern Europe:
“
warm and wet
”
or
“
cold and
dry
”
?
What is the global climate warming due to anthropogenic impacts?
How high can be the World Ocean level in the 21st century?
Will the global climate warming cause an increase of the frequency of extreme
weather phenomena and will
these phenomena intensify and become
widespread?
Are sudden climate changes possible?
As has been mentioned, studies of global systems of monsoons are of primary
importance for CLIVAR. This has been favoured by the successful accomplishment
of the
field experiment SALLJEX on studies of the south-American jet stream in the
troposphere, which was part of a wider project VAMOS (Wood et al. 2011) to
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