Ecoinformatics Problems of Global Climate Change - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 370

a deeper understanding of the laws of the climate system, and provision of reliable
forecast of its dynamics. This strategy planned for the period 2005 2015 should be

realized within the COPES programme, based on accomplishment of the projects
included into WCRP and directed at

-

the following problems of development

(COPES 2004):

(1) Determination of possibility and assessment of expected reliability of the
seasonal forecasts of climate for all regions of the globe with the use of
available climate models and observation data, as well as more adequate
information with further development of models and systems of

observations.
(2) Further development and test of adequacy of the ensemble forecasts of
natural and anthropogenic variability of climate.
(3) Scienti c substantiation and analysis of adequacy of methods of regional

climate forecasts on different temporal scales.
(4) Development of reliably veri

ed models of climate dynamics with chemical

processes taken into account.
(5) Realistic numerical modeling of the glacier-interglacier cycles with the use of
general circulation models.
(6) Shortening of the intervals of uncertainties of the estimates of sensitivity of
numerical climate modeling results to external forcings.
(7) Improvement of numerical modeling of arid climates and analysis of their
reliability.
(8) Improvement of numerical modeling of monsoon climates and analysis of
their reliability.
(9) Cooperation with IPCC WG-1 in the interests of preparation of AR4 Fourth
IPCC Report on climate problems.
(10) Analysis of reasons why, how, and where the modes of climate variability
change in response to anthropogenic forcings, and affects of such processes
on the long-term climatic variability.
(11) Assessment of predictability of intraseasonal climate changes based on the
use of interactive models.
(12) Determination of spatial-temporal scales of predictability of temperature,
salinity, and general circulation of the ocean.
(13) Speci cation of forecasts of anthropogenic rise of the World Ocean level.

(14) Support to efforts on re-analysis of data on variability of the climate system ' s

components.

This enumeration is far from being complete, and this clearly follows from
information discussed in recent overviews (Kondratyev 2004a, b; Kondratyev et al.
2003a, b, c, d). As it has been mentioned, one of the important problems of COPES
consists in analysis of the information content of the data of observations of various
climatic parameters from the viewpoint of evaluation of contribution of these data,
to the increase of reliability of climate forecasts on different spatial-temporal scales.
Resolving of problems connected with this aspect of COPES, will require coordi-
nated efforts on collection, accumulation, and re-analysis of the climatological