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here. It is also important to evaluate the possibility of using different indicators,
such as biocomplexity, to show the approach of a natural catastrophe.
Investigating correlations between survivability, biocomplexity, and NSS evo-
lution using global-modeling technologies. Creating global model blocks,
describing regularities and trends in the environment, to ascertain stressful sit-
uations initiated by economic or political activity.
Consideration of the demographic premises of the arising of the natural catas-
trophes and discovery of mechanisms regulating the nature environment and
preventing the realization of these premises.
Synthesis of the NSS model and the development of a computer method to carry
out calculations in order to assess the consequences of a realization of various
anthropogenic activity scenarios.
Walker (2003) fairly noticed that the notion of the natural catastrophe is vague
and its determination depends on many factors. Grigoryev and Kondratyev (2001)
de
exceeding and dangerous situation in vital
activity of the population, caused by essential disadvantage changes in the envi-
ronment
ned the natural catastrophe as
“
”
“
as uneven changes in the system, appearing in the manner of its
sudden answer to
,or
”
. The amount of such
critical situations in the environment is increasing. At present, the following phe-
nomenon pertains to natural catastrophes:
fl
fluent changes of the external environment
floods, droughts, hurricanes, storms,
tornado, tsunami, earthquakes, landslides, collapses, coldness, volcanic eruptions,
wild
fl
res, windstorms, sandstorms, avalanches, strong frosts, heat, epidemics, pla-
gues of locust, and many other natural phenomena. In the future, this list may
enlarge to account of the origin of new type of natural catastrophes such as colli-
sions with cosmic body and generated person
bioterrorism, nuclear catastrophes,
—
magnetic
field reversal, plague, robot aggression, alien aggression, cultural decline,
etc. For this reason, it is important to develop ef
cient quantitative technologies and
criteria so that warnings about the appearance of dangerous disastrous natural
phenomena can be issued with high reliability.
Many authors consider the notion of the natural catastropheto be associated with
the notion of ecological safety, which
first appeared when the need to estimate the
risk facing the population in a given area to get insurance to cover health, buildings,
or other property as a result of changing environmental parameters arose. These
changes can be triggered by both natural and anthropogenic causes. In the
rst case,
the dangerous situation appears at the expense of
fluctuations in natural processes
connected with change of the ecological situation, origin of epidemics or by natural
disaster. In the second case, danger appears as nature reaction to anthropogenic
activity. For instance, Gardner (2002) investigated the change in the natural envi-
ronment of the Himalayas in India and came to the conclusion that factors such as
reforestation and change in vegetable cover induce and amplify instability in this
region. This results in land resource degradation and increased destruction of the
natural environment because of
fl
floods. Field and Raupach (2004) and Abrahamson
(1989) interfaced the change of regularities of the appearance of natural catastro-
phes with growth of instability in the carbon-climate-society system. According to
fl
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