Geoscience Reference
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25 years show that losses from natural catastrophes are much greater in developing
countries than in economically developed regions. Taking into account that in
recent decades the number and power of natural catastrophes has increased by about
five times and the danger they pose by about nine times, the threat to the population
of these countries in the near future becomes abundantly clear. For that reason,
forecasting and warning of crisis phenomena must be a subject of worry for all
countries, regardless of their economic development.
At present, the theory of catastrophes and the analysis of risk are well developed
(Brebbia 2004). Their application to events and processes in the real environment
requires to synthesize a global model of the NSS that employs the technical
facilities of satellite monitoring. The solution of the problems that arise here is the
subject of ecoinformatics, which provides the joining of analytical simple, semi-
empirical and complex nonlinear models of ecosystems with updated global data-
base. Many international and national programs of environmental study, directed at
problem solving and spatial orientation, have recently raised the level of thematic
coordination to reach the necessary level of ef
ciency. An example of such coor-
dination is the Global Carbon Project and Earth Observing System, which between
them contain information and technical facilities of the highest quality for esti-
mation and forecasting of NSS dynamic features.
The development of the constructive ways to forecast natural catastrophes
requires decisions regarding a set of problems:
Adaptation of ecoinformatics methods to the problem of diagnosing and fore-
casting natural catastrophes in all their variety.
Formation of the statistical characteristics of the natural catastrophes in their
history aspect, selecting categories and de
ning spatial and temporary scales of
the disastrous change of the human habitation. The analysis of the natural
catastrophes history is important for understanding the modern dependencies
between crisis in nature and society. The statistical characteristics of the natural
catastrophes in their dynamics allow the formulation of the basic positions to
mathematical theory of the catastrophes and de
ne the priority directions of the
studies.
Developing a concept and synthesizing a survivability model to estimate the
in
fl
uence of natural catastrophes on human habitation.
The study of the objective laws of the interaction between different components
and processes in global NSS in interconnection with such capacious notion, as
biological complexity of the ecosystem (biocomplexity), considering it as a
function of biological, physical, chemical, social, and behavioral interactions of
the environmental subsystems, including living organisms and their community.
The notion of biocomplexity is linked to objective laws that govern the way the
biosphere functions by uniting its ecosystems and natural/economic systems on
different scales, from local to global. A joint formalized description of the
biological, geochemical, geophysical, and anthropogenic factors and processes
occurring at a given level of the spatiotemporal hierarchy of scales is called for
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