Measuring and Forecasting Demand - Tourism: Principles, Practices, Philosophies - page 296

obviously have an impact on demand levels. By the Delphi method, the combined effects of all such
factors are carefully considered from the base of the executive s experience. For estimating tourism

demand, then, a combination of various mathematical statistical methods and the Delphi method
is believed to produce the most reliable demand estimates in any given situation. Of course, to
implement this combination of methods is costly and time consuming — and as such, requires a full
commitment.

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E GLOBAL INSIGHT E

Tourism Forecasts
T There are several places to turn for tourism forecasts. One of

Forecasts 2010-2012. PATA forecasts are published annually
and provide a comprehensive numeric insight into the patterns of
growth in the region. Visit www.pata.org .

the best is the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) Web
site ( www.wttc.org ), where you will click on Economic Data
Search. This will allow you to access forecasts for the current year
and ten years out for 13 regions and 181 countries without
charge. WTTC and its research partner, Oxford Economics (OE),
use a sophisticated combination of macroeconomic research and
forecasts, national accounting data, travel and tourism variables,
and econometric modeling to product forecasts covering
concepts of travel and tourism demand, gross domestic product,
and employment.

The Canadian Tourism Commission's Research and Statistics
section provides an outlook on travel volumes for the upcoming
travel season. It also tracks trends and maintain statistics and
figures that are useful in preparing forecasts. Its Web site is
www.CanadaTourism.com .

Tourism Australia has established the Tourism Forecasting
Committee (TFC). The TFC is an independent body charged
with providing present and potential tourism investors,
industry, and government(s) with consensus forecasts of
activity for the international, domestic, and outbound tourism
sectors. The resources for the TFC are provided by Tourism
Australia. Its forecast prepared in June 2010 of inbound
arrivals sees an increase of 4.9 percent in 2011, and then
with growth easing will average 3.9 percent a year over the
10-year period to 2019. Visit www.tourismaustralia.com .

Another source is UNWTO's Tourism: 2020 Vision, a long-term
forecast that covers the development of tourism for the first
20 years of this century. It is a quantitative forecast covering a
25-year period, with 1995 as the base year and forecasts for
2010 and 2020. They also publish Tourism Indicators, which
cover international tourist arrivals and receipts that are useful for
making forecasts. Visit www.unwto.org .

These examples reflect the importance of forecasting demand
as an essential tool of tourism planning and are indicative
of the types of effort that many national tourism offices
engage in.

For tourism forecasts for the United States, one needs to turn to
the U.S. Travel Association (USTA). USTA has instituted several
major industry forecast programs for travel volume and trends.
These include the Marketing Outlook Forum proceedings
Domestic Outlook for Travel and Tourism, and the International
Outlook for Travel and Tourism. Its travel forecast predicts total
travel expenditures in the United States will reach $862.7 billion
in 2012. Visit www.ustravel.org .

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

1. Why is it important to forecast tourism expenditures?

Tourism arrivals?

For Asia-Pacific tourism forecasts, contact the Pacific Asia Travel
Association (PATA) and purchase their Asia Pacific Tourism

2. What is the best source of tourism forecasts?

SUMMARY

Demand, without doubt, is the fundamental measure of any area is success in attracting visitors. All

planning activities are ultimately intended to increase or control demand. Marketing programs are
aimed at increasing demand, sometimes at certain periods during the year, and/or to attract
particularly identi ed market segments.

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