Travel Reference
In-Depth Information
Understanding demand requires a knowledge of its de
nition, what demand comprises, what
affects the levels of demand, and how future demand can be identi
ed and estimated. Thus, use of
demand data is essential in any tourist business situation.
Development of a destination area, whether by public authority, private developers, or both,
requires demand data that are as accurate as possible. Providing such data is one of the most
important responsibilities of an of
cial tourism organization. Similar data are provided by research
organizations and consulting
firms, usually when commissioned to make feasibility studies. Any
development proposal must have ample estimates of expected demand before any
financing can
be committed.
Becoming familiar with methods of measuring or estimating present and future demand, as
described in this chapter, should enable you to produce such data. With the current high cost of land
and construction, reasonably accurate demand statistics are of paramount importance.
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KEY CONCEPTS
E
amount spent
computer simulation
cost of services
cultural distance
demand
demand projections
economic distance
executive judgment (Delphi method)
least squares regression
multiple regression
propensity
quality of service
resistance
sales and use tax
seasonality
simple regression
tax collections
trend analysis
visitor arrivals
visitor-days
visitor-nights
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INTERNET EXERCISES
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The Internet sites mentioned in this chapter plus some
selected additional sites are listed for your convenience on
the companion Web site for this topic,
www.wiley.com/college/goeldner
.
ACTIVITY 2
Site Name:
Hong Kong Tourism Demand Forecasting System
URL:
www.tourismforecasting.net/hktdfs
Background Information:
This Web site is a part of the
research project
Developing a Tourism Demand Forecast-
ing System for Hong Kong.
''
ACTIVITY 1
Site Name:
The project also sponsors the
Tourism Forecasting Special Interest Group of the Interna-
tional Institute of Forecasters (
www.forecasters.org
).
''
Of
ce of Travel and Tourism Industries
URL:
www.tinet.ita.doc.gov
Background Information:
The Of
ce of Travel and Tourism
Industries functions as the U.S. federal tourism of
ce. Its
core responsibility is to collect, analyze, and disseminate
international travel and tourism statistics for the U.S.
Travel and Tourism Statistical System.
Exercises
1.
Go to
on the Web site and
find the four
speci
c objectives of the project.
'
project details
'
2.
What is the current time period forecasts are being made
for?
Exercise
1.
What statistical data are available at this Web site that
would
help
a
tourism
professional
determine
the
demand for travel and tourism?
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