Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Fig. 3.7
Simulated changes of LUCC area (measured in million ha) in China, 2010-2100
On the whole, built-up area, forestry area will show an increasing trend under
the three scenarios. On the contrary, cropland, grassland and water area will
show a decreasing trend under the three scenarios. However, grassland and
forestry area change at the fastest rate under CES scenario, at the lowest rate
under REG scenario, while other types change at the lowest rate in CES
scenario and fastest rate in REG.
Statistical analysis of the simulation result indicated that land cover will
change as follows. The area of built-up area will increase most rapidly during
2000-2010, with the 10-year increasing rate reaching 3.86, 5.05 and 2.98 %
under the BAU scenario, REG scenario and CES scenario, respectively. The
built-up area will increase rapidly during 2010-2060 under the BAU scenario
and CES scenario with the 10-year increasing rate as 0.54 and 0.44 million ha,
respectively. Whereas, the 10-year increasing rate tends to slow down during
the latter time period of 2060-2100 with the 10-year increasing rate only as
