Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
2.5
×
10
8
GTAP
GCAM
Real
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Cropland
Forestry land
Grassland
Built-up land
Fig. 2.6
The comparison of land use area between simulated and real in 2008 (hectare)
Table 2.3 The adjustment of
GCAM input parameters (%)
in 2010
Input parameters
Previous parameters
Adjusted parameters
GDP growth
10
10.4
Labor growth
0.4
0.4
Capital growth
12.6
12.8
TFP growth
0.9
1.1
Population growth rate
0.8
0.5
that the distribution of different land use types among AEZs is approximately
consistent, but with some difference between them.
There is still some difference between the real land use area and that obtained
with the two models, and the simulation result with the GTAP-AEZ model is better
than that with the GCAM model (Fig.
2.6
). The results show that the area of
cropland and forestry land simulated with the GCAM model and the GCAM model
are far higher than the real one, which is 2.13 and 1.96 times larger than the real
one, respectively. However, the areas of grassland and built-up land simulated
with the two models are both lower than real values. This indicates there is still
some inaccuracy in data of the land use structure, industry structure, and social
economic situation of China in the global simulation. For example, the forest land
should be divided into economic forest lands and ecological forest lands, but not
distinguished in this study, leading to the significant difference between the sim-
ulated and real areas for the forest land.
There is an extremely complex socioeconomic structure and land use structure
in
China,
both
of
which
have
changed
greatly
due
to
the
rapid
economic
