Geology Reference
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must also become compulsory. All these measures should in turn be supported by
exhaustive international agreements including global governance.
The exhaustion of the planet is still in its dawn, but if no preventive maintenance
is rapidly undertaken, humanity is at risk of reaching dusk (Thanatia) and fading
into its technological zenith.
15.5 A Third Industrial Revolution?
The Third Industrial Revolution as introduced by Rifkin et al. (2008) speaks of a
new dawn where the convergence of renewable energies with ICTs will change the
world, laying the groundwork for a post-carbon economy
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. As these authors state:
“We are at a precarious point in history. The global credit crisis is compounded
by the global energy crisis and the global climate change crisis, creating what
amounts to a potential cataclysm for human civilisation, unlike anything we've
ever witnessed before. The three global crises are interwoven and feed off of each
other. Addressing the triple threat to our way of life will require a new economic
story that can remake civilization along sustainable lines.”
Under the Third Industrial Revolution on and offshore wind energy will grow
on an unprecedented scale worldwide, with not only bigger wind farms but more
domestic uptakes. PV will become more competitive and final users will use and
produce their own energy. New electricity networks will be created and will, as the
Internet already has done, change the way companies and individuals operate. The
deficient ways of storing energy will be no longer an obstacle as new batteries, new
ultra-capacitors and pumped storage will optimise energy management. Control
systems, power electronics, poly-generation systems, micro and nano-scale devices
and a myriad of new converging technologies will change the Neolithic vision of
renewables as mere auxiliary energy suppliers to the powerhouses that society des-
perately desires. Virtual power plants, distributed generation and smart grids will
become common place. Houses will approach zero energy balances. Electric cars
fed by renewable electricity will slowly but surely replace conventional motorised
forms. The agro-industry will play an increasingly important role in food security,
chemicals and energy (poly-generation) in bio-factories. Small hydro, geothermal
and energy from waves are also likely to be on the agenda. Different combinations
of wind, solar thermoelectric, water pumping and storage will change the direction
of river flows at Man's convenience
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.
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There are nonetheless pessimistic voices, including Hoffmann (2011) who argue that the figure
of 0.77 kg/$ in 2008, meaning a 2% annual decline on the 1 kg/$ of 1980 would have to decrease
130 fold (equating to a 11% decrease pa) to have a drastic decarbonising effect on society.
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This vision is not so far from reality. In fact, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory
(NREL), recently published a report on Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures), that
systematically analyses the conditions for meeting electricity demands of the continental United
States using renewable energy over the next several decades until 2050 (Hand et al., 2012).
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