Geology Reference
In-Depth Information
resources also count in the future and whereas climate change is deeply related to
the intensive use of fossil fuels, the Man-planet evolution is deeply related to the
intense utilisation of all minerals, and the use and management of both abiotic
and biotic resources generally. The IPCC recommendations for adaptation and
mitigation measures are therefore, whilst very necessary, not su
cient.
That said, the IPCC quite rightly identifies the challenging coordination that
needs to occur across the political, economic and technological spheres in order
to mitigate disaster. To that effect, the authors' opinion is that the only way
to radically eliminate catastrophic failures would be via predictive maintenance.
Maintenance of the “Man-Gaia machine” can thus be used as a metaphor in the
sense of including maintenance strategies to reduce planet deterioration.
The Webster dictionary defines maintenance as “the activity of keeping some-
thing in a satisfactory condition”. According to such a definition, maintenance is
thus an activity, rather than an analysis. Moreover, it is the act of keeping some-
thing, which in turn means to take care of, or defend it, or to ensure that it remains
in a given condition. In other words, it describes conservation in action, repairing
from degradation, taking records and identifying failures. Yet an extended definition
as to what a “satisfactory condition” really entails needs to be sort.
Detecting, precluding and mitigating degradation as occurs in preventive main-
tenance states should be prioritised, as opposed to either reactive or corrective
maintenance, where action is only taken following failure. The spaceship of Bould-
ing (1966), referred to earlier in Sec. 15.4.1.1, requires preventive maintenance just
like a vessel in the ocean. In this way, the system becomes more resilient and
long lasting. The human-geosphere interaction likewise is prolonged by controlling
degradation to reasonable limits. Forecasts serve to limit unpredictability whilst
heightening the resilience of the system which improves notably as economic and
environmental costs decrease. They can also reasonably diagnose cause and effect
relationships and support the adoption of actions accordingly. Yet even if fore-
casts are to improve, by including the most sophisticated models which tackle data
clusters by the millions, the future remains essentially unpredictable. Indeed, it is
quite possible that Nature's conservation only ever reaches some kind of adaptive
maintenance, since the scope of problems are multidimensional and multiregional
and there will always be an absence of certainty. This is because in contrast to
a manmade linear system, the Man-planet is a chaotic system. And, in this dy-
namic the “butterfly effect”, i.e. the sensitive dependence on initial conditions, will
always impede deterministic futures. Notwithstanding, mankind will always crave
more knowledge and technological advances, which in turn require investments. Ev-
idently, technological development needs ethics and management. Man also needs
a better policy framework, which should comprise, at least, a global management
of resources and an understanding of the linkages of resource use through time.
The maintenance metaphor of the non-linear behaviour of the Man-planet system
resources are to be found in the future.
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