Geology Reference
In-Depth Information
1.3 Energy and environment
Accelerated environmental change and industrial growth means that Man is increas-
ingly exposed to melting at the poles, an increased liberation of copious amounts
of GHGs and significant rises in sea levels
7
. Likewise the planet is experiencing
increasingly frequent extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and
flooding. Temperature variability is also expected to result in a huge loss of for-
est cover, mass species extinctions and expanded disease mobility, as vectors once
found only in tropical areas migrate towards the poles. It is even possible that global
warming will change the dynamic of the Atlantic Gulf Stream and subsequently the
global ocean circulation generally (Warren, 2011).
It is di
cult to predict effects on individual countries or regions should this
occur, but this is, incidentally, the rationale behind the International Environmental
Agency (IEA) 450 Scenario, one of the three presented in its World Energy Outlook
2010 (IEA, 2011b)
8
. The 450 Scenario analyses the prerequisites needed to limit
the global average temperature increase to 2
C (equivalent to 450 ppm atmospheric
CO
2
concentration, hence the name). Yet whilst a rise of an “only” 2
o
C above
average pre-industrial level temperatures, as a consequence of “unavoidable” fossil
fuel consumption, may be considered “reasonable” internationally, allowing it to
occur may still cause millions of people to suffer from hunger, malaria and somewhat
paradoxically both flooding and water shortages.
According to the scenario, the emission target set for 2035 will have already been
reached by 2017 and therefore if no action is taken to substantially cut emissions,
the increase in the global average temperature will rise beyond 3.5
o
C. As such,
the entire energy sector would need to become zero-carbon post 2017, a highly
inconceivable likelihood. And, as the IEA recapitulates: “Delaying action is a false
economy: for every $1 of investment avoided in the power sector before 2020 an
additional $4.3 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased
emissions”.
The other two scenarios are the Current Policies Scenario and the central one,
the New Policies Scenario, built on those measures governments have already taken.
According to the New Policy Scenario the global population is expected to reach
close to 8.7 billion by 2035. India and Africa particularly are expected to experience
a steep growth both in GDP and energy demand. In short, IEA (2011b) states that
“Non-OECD countries account for 90% of population growth, 70% of the increase
in economic output and 90% of energy demand growth over the period from 2010
to 2035”. On the contrary, demand originating from OECD countries is expected
to essentially remain flat as a consequence of improvements in energy e
ciency. By
2035, China on the back of growing prosperity, is expected to become the largest
7
This increase is a result of ice melt plus the thermal expansion of oceans and could lead to an
average global rise of up to 7 m (Warren, 2011).
8
Where it was announced that energy demand grew (5%), as did global energy intensity despite
the world economic crisis.
Search WWH ::
Custom Search