The Depletion of Non-Renewable Abiotic Resources - Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources - page 8

energy consumer, using 70% more energy than the United States, although their
per-capita energy consumption will be half that of the U.S.
Concerning oil and natural gas supply, the IEA accepts that the era of cheap
oil is finished. It states that there will be a plateau of 68 million barrels per day of
conventional oil supply until 2035 upon which it is expected to decline 9 . Thus, under
the New Policies Scenario, the demand will need to be covered by a considerable
addition of 47 mb/day which effectively doubles the current production of all the
Middle East OPEC countries. Middle East production is expected to come from
natural gas liquids (18 mb/day in 2035) and unconventional sources (10 mb/day).
Biofuels could cover as much as 4mb/day and the rest of the supply will need to
come from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Canada.
Conventional oil will remain the largest supplier of global transportation. Al-
ternative fuels, like biofuels, LNG and electricity for hybrid and electric cars, will
account only for a 10% share. This will make transport highly sensitive to substan-
tial increases in oil prices. The demand for private vehicles will increase by 100%,
leading to further energy consumption despite improvements in energy e ciency.
Global energy demand for transportation, including commercial, may thus increase
by 40% on the 2010 baseline figure.
Furthermore according to the ExxonMobil forecast (ExxonMobil, 2012), which
largely coincides with that of the IEA World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2011b), the
majority of the increases in industrial energy demand will come from the manufac-
turing and chemical sectors. Demand for steel, iron and cement, for instance, will
double. Non-OECD countries are expected to lead the global industrial demand for
energy, a figure that is forecasted to rise by about 30% by 2040. Increased e ciency
meanwhile is expected to flatten the industrial energy demand without effecting
productivity.
Electricity generation is to remain the fastest growing energy sector. Presently,
coal is the greatest contributor. E ciency within the coal sector, due to thermoelec-
tric generation, will improve thanks to new supercritical and integrated gasification
combined cycles incorporating carbon capture and storage technologies. Natural
gas, either from conventional wells or from shale gas using hydraulic fracture, is
likely to be used more than coal to generate electricity in the future. It is expected
however that apart from the switch to gas, generators will gradually move to low
carbon sources such as renewables and nuclear energy.
Nuclear as a consequence of the Fukushima accident in 2011, is to have an
uncertain share. A smaller contribution (considered under the IEA Low Nuclear
Case, where it accounts for closures and slowdowns) will open up further possibilities
for combinations of renewables and fossil fuels. Currently such a scenario weakens
security of supply whilst simultaneously intensifying costs and boosting emissions.
Failure to engage in nuclear electricity, despite its safety (and arguably political)
9 In contrast, other estimates suggest a peak in around 2014 (2 years) at less than 90 mb/day
(Varela, 2007; Aleklett and Campbell, 2003).