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doubles
Patches and Fragments
Recurring fires produce a
complex mosaic dominated by
vegetation in various early seral
stages; managing the products
of succession and exotic species
are paramount
Novel Ecosystems
Frequent droughts, large fires
and exotic species combine
to produce large swaths of new
ecosystem-types unlike anything
ever seen in this region
large fires
become
new norm
similar to
mid-
1900
s
Burned Area Extent
Business as Usual?
Moderate climate-change
impacts lead to complacency;
capacity for responding to
ecosystem change stagnates
or declines; managers and
policy makers caught off guard
when change does occur
Inevitable Surprises
Extended periods of status
quo are punctuated with rapid,
whole-scale landscape turn-
over in response to massive
fires; amplifies potential for
exotic species invasion
and spread
similar to
historical
(b)
Predicted future Mediterranean climate
• Higher temperatures with warmer, drier summers and more heat waves
• Higher rainfall variability and more torrential storms
Increased
fire activity
Alternative management strategies
Wildfire suppression
Wildfire avoidance
Episodic severe wildfires
Change to less
flammable vegetation
Regularly reduce fuel load
with prescried fire
Time
Time
Time
Figure 4.11
Examples of scenario planning. (a) Rocky Mountains and Upper Columbia Basin. The axes
can represent a critical driver of system change or a significant trend in the environment. Here the axes
shown are continuum between conditions that are similar to those observed in the historical record
and conditions that are significantly altered from those seen today, producing four alternative scenarios
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