A Burning Question: Can Long-term Data Inform Fire Management in the Twenty-first Century? - Biodiversity Conservation and Environmental Change - page 83

Fire management involves value judgements. Forest and grass-dominated elements pro-
vide different ecosystem services, in terms of grazing, fuel, timber, food, and medicine, for
example. They also have different suites of species and aesthetic appeals, and contribute dif-
ferently to supporting ecosystem services like climate regulation and water provision. Simi-
larly, various stakeholder groups may hold divergent opinions on the risks and values of
alternative fire regimes, and what is seen as a problem by some stakeholders may be an
opportunity for others; whereas a pastoralist may favour frequent burns and grassy habitats,
for example, a forester or property owner may perceive fires as risky, dangerous, and eco-
nomically damaging. Knowing the history and past range of variability can help stakeholders
understand how recent land and fire management has affected fire regimes and ecosystem
services, and this may influence how landscapes are viewed (Jackson and Hobbs 2009, Pap-
worth et al. 2009). For example, people might be more willing to tolerate pre-emptive burns if
they understand the value of fire as an ecological process, or of the risk of severe, destructive
wildfires increases. Their perceptions of fire-prone ecosystems might alter if the benefits to
ecosystems are understood, especially when considered alongside the increase in severe fires
over recent decades and massive costs of fire suppression (Gavin et al. 2007).
Understanding the natural range of variability helps put today's landscapes in context and
might change perceptions of the ecosystem states and range of variability that is acceptable. Sim-
ilarly, exploring different future scenarios can help in developing to inform management targets
that will build resilience and foster adaptation in the face of changing climate and fire regimes.
Example of scenarios for Mediterranean ecosystems and US forests are shown in Figure 4.11.
The palaeoecological record, alongside historical records of fire management, and the
study of past and present traditional management of fire, can provide clues as to how essen-
tial ecosystem services can be maintained, but future climate and socioeconomic scenarios
are uncertain. We may be entering an era of climates with no past analogue, and ecosystems
are encountering new combinations of Anthropocene stressors, such as pollution, habitat
fragmentation, and invasive species (Millar et al. 2007). Fire management must therefore be
flexible and adaptive, so that it can respond to changing environmental conditions, emerging
knowledge, and societal preferences (Penman et al. 2011, van Wilgen and Biggs 2011). Adap-
tive management allows the results of management changes to be incorporated in cycles of
'learning by doing, a process that also helps to ensure that ire management does not become
entrenched, and out of step with emerging knowledge, changing climate, and shifting soci-
etal preferences (see Chapter 1). In fire management, an adaptive management approach
for future conditions (e.g. frequent drought and large fires in the upper right). These scenarios can then
be further developed into narratives that provide quantitative and/or qualitative details about how each
scenario might unfold. Depending on the application and available data, the axes and the resulting sto-
rylines may be defined quantitatively or based on qualitative assessments (Jackson et al. 2009b).
Reproduced with permission of the Paleontological Society. (b) Fire management options for
Mediterranean ecosystems under a future climate scenario of warmer, drier summers and more
extreme rainfall. Prescribed burning and vegetation management are two options shown for avoiding
episodic extreme wildfires (Shakesby 2011). Reproduced with permission from Elsevier.