Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
mafrost, and surging glaciers has been recognized and their incidence re-
corded for certain areas. Yet, almost no basic scientific investigation of
these cryogenic processes has taken place in the greater Himalayan re-
gion, even though they involve significant hazards, whichmay increase
or decrease risk in given areas. The immense diversity of local effects
found within the region should be recognized: diversity of climates and
topo-climates, hydrology and ecology, andabove all of human cultures and
activities. Before effective responses can be developed much work has to
be carried out to identify and predict the possible effects of climate change
across different systems from glaciers to water resources, from biodiver-
sity to food production, from natural hazards to human health and filtered
through diverse contexts. In particular, there has been little engagement
with local populations so far to learn from their knowledge and experience
in adapting to unique and changing environments and to address their con-
cerns and needs (Xu and Rana, 2005).
19.10.8 DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS
The downstream effects of changing water flow regimes in the large Hi-
malayan rivers are to a great extent, unknown. Few (if any) studies have
attempted to model the impact of a 30 to 50% reduction in dry season flow
on, for example, downstream economic growth, livelihood conditions and
urban water use. It is likely that these changes will have major impacts
on downstream societies; however, these impacts are largely unknown.
Impacts on water resources will differ depending upon the importance or
influence of different sectors (such as tourism, irrigated agriculture, in-
dustry and resource extraction), the ecosystems involved and the mitiga-
tion measures implemented to reduce water-induced hazards. There are
substantial variations within, as well as between these sectors in different
countries and valleys in the region.
19.10.9 GLOBAL FEEDBACK EFFECTS
Glaciations at low latitudes have the potential to play an important role
in the global radiation budget. A climatic feedback mechanism for Hi-
malayan glaciation shows that a higher glacier free or low albedo surface
has a cooling effect over the Himalayas and a warming effect over
