APPLICATION: FLOOD FORECASTING MODEL FOR LOIRE RIVER (FRANCE) - Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems - page 121

Figure 6.7. Uncertainty (standard deviation) of forecasted water levels due to
uncertainty in rating curves (total of 3 rating curves at Givry, Gien
and Orleans) for different coefficient of variations.
Figure 6.8. Measured water levels (points without lines) and 95% confidence
bounds with various coefficients of variations 0.10 (discontinuous
lines), 0.15 (continuous lines) and 0.20 (thick grey lines) in water
levels or discharges computed using rating curves.
6.2.3 Conclusions
The present analysis demonstrated the useful application of the FOSM method for the
estimation of uncertainty in the forecasts of a flood forecasting model for which detailed
information about the uncertainty of the input parameters is not available. The analysis
showed that the forecast uncertainty is higher for high flows than for low flows. It also